#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Boosted by expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire, Bitcoin price breaks through $69,000 to reach a new weekly high, while oil prices fall

Bitcoin on Monday, after reports emerged that negotiations on a possible ceasefire between the United States and Iran may take place, broader financial markets rose in Asian and London early trading.
In the early hours of Monday, leading cryptocurrency prices hit a weekly high of 69,350 USD, and are currently trading at 69,245 USD, up 3.5% for the day. According to CoinGecko data, crude oil prices fell 1.4% from last Friday’s close, the Nikkei index rose 0.85%, and S&P 500 index futures rose 0.64%. Meanwhile, the price of gold, a safe-haven asset, hovered near breakeven.
These moves came after Reuters reported that the United States, Iran, and a group of regional mediators are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire agreement, which is expected to permanently end the war.
Pakistan has drawn up a potential framework to end hostilities and achieve a ceasefire, with all elements to be agreed upon before Monday. The initial consensus will be presented in the form of a memorandum of understanding and finalized electronically through Pakistan as the sole communications channel in the negotiations.
Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump delivered a rant-filled speech. In a Sunday program posted on TruthSocial, he claimed: “Tuesday will be Iran’s Power Plant Day and Bridge Day, the two combined into one. Absolutely unprecedented!!! Hurry up and open the Strait, you people, or else you’ll be waiting to go to hell—just wait and see!” He concluded by writing: “Praise be to God.”
Short squeeze
“What’s driving Bitcoin higher isn’t Trump’s comments, but reports of ceasefire talks coming from Iran,” said Ekko An, an analyst at Tiger Research in Seoul.
The analyst explained that, because Trump has repeatedly made statements lacking substantive coordination, the market no longer believes what he says. “So the market now interprets his remarks in combination with external action signals to read the trend in prices.”
According to reports, more than $200 million in crypto short positions were liquidated within 24 hours—four times the long positions. Data from CoinGlass shows that Derek Lim, research director at crypto market maker Caladan, said this points to a “textbook short squeeze.” Decryption said the market is prepared for a reversal because market sentiment is in extreme panic.
He explained that the combined effect of these factors, along with Morgan Stanley’s April 8 launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF with a fee rate of 0.14%, lower than BlackRock’s IBIT fee rate of 0.25%, also helped drive Bitcoin’s surge.
Although risk assets may rebound, the Strait of Hormuz remains a structural issue.
Lim said: “Reopening the Strait of Hormuz would cause oil risk premia to plunge, which would then lower the market’s expectations for future rate cuts, ultimately readjusting the entire risk curve from stocks to cryptocurrencies. Oil prices will fall first, then interest rates will be repriced, and finally risk assets will rise.”
However, he warned that if relations in the strait are not substantially normalized, “this would only bring a short-lived rally, which is likely to fade within a few days.” Since late March, the market has already seen this happen three times. “Unless there is a substantial change in relations across the strait, this rally driven by rhetoric will continue to be sold off,” Mr. Lim said.
The performance of Dastan, the parent company of Wuxu (market forecast users), reflects persistent uncertainty. They are showing increasing optimism about future performance. While the probability of a U.S./Iran ceasefire increased by more than 10% on the day in the first half of the year, the overall figure still remains negative at 45%, and the market is paying close attention to it. Before May, more than 15 ships had passed through the Strait of Hormuz. On that day, market sentiment also became noticeably more optimistic, rising nearly 7% to 60%.
Now, many users assign a 46% probability to the next move for Bitcoin, which is expected to rise to $84,000, while crude oil is believed to have an 83% chance of the next target being $120.
Two analysts interviewed in a report by Decryption said that Bitcoin could again test $80,000, but this largely depends on whether the negotiations succeed and whether the ceasefire agreement is ultimately confirmed. However, if talks fail, Bitcoin could fall to $60,000.