Expert: The US and Iran face multiple practical obstacles in reaching a temporary ceasefire

Deep Tide TechFlow message. On April 6, according to data from Jintou Data, Li Zixin, an assistant researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, said that, judging from the current situation, the possibility that the U.S. and Iran can reach a temporary ceasefire is not impossible, but it is indeed fraught with difficulties. Even if they do reach one, it is more likely to be a stopgap measure rather than a reliable path toward a permanent ceasefire. First, the core demands of both sides are actually hard to reconcile. Iran regards control of the Strait of Hormuz and its stockpile of high-concentration uranium enriched to 60%—as well as related reserves—as the key strategic bargaining chip for negotiations, and it has already made clear that it will not give up these fundamental interests for a short-term ceasefire. The United States, meanwhile, requires Iran to reopen the strait and handle nuclear materials; in essence, it is demanding that Iran make unilateral concessions, and, by putting aside Iran’s core interest conditions with short-term actions, obtain Iran’s core interest terms—something that touches Iran’s bottom line for sovereignty and security. Second, the foundation of trust for negotiations is extremely weak. Iran, on its side, while acknowledging that it exchanged relevant information with the United States through friendly countries, denies holding direct talks. On the one hand, U.S. President Trump is releasing signals for negotiations; on the other hand, he is also continuing to issue the “final ultimatum” of military strikes. This mode of fighting while negotiating is closer to a strategy of maximum pressure and testing how much room the other side has to make concessions, rather than genuinely seeking reconciliation.