"Bitcoin 'Lying Flat' Memo: Both Bulls and Bears Are Waiting for the Other to Yawn First"

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Let's start with the hard data. As of the early morning of April 5, 2026, Bitcoin closed at $67,303, up 0.67% in 24 hours. Ethereum gained 0.69% in the same period. Altcoins, under the influence of major weights, did not show significant divergence; the entire market looked like workers strolling through a mall on the weekend—no passion, no desire to give up.

Looking at longer cycles, BTC's 7-day increase is about 0.76%, but the 30-day decline remains at 1.3%, and the 90-day drop is as high as 28.4%. The quarterly bear market backdrop has not faded despite recent stabilization. With a market cap of $1.34 trillion and circulating supply officially surpassing 20 million coins—less than 1 million coins away from the ultimate cap of 21 million—this signals one thing: the "issuance dilution" effect of mining is historically diminishing, and scarcity is no longer just a story but a reality being realized.

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1. The Tug-of-War Between Two Forces: Who's Buying, Who's Selling?

The most interesting part of the current market is that institutional buying and whale selling pressures are offsetting each other on the same time scale, creating a "vacuum" in price.

On the short side:

CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin's "apparent demand" has turned negative, around -63k coins—that is, the overall market sell volume exceeds new demand by 63k coins. The whale ratio on exchanges has risen from 0.34 in January to 0.79 at the end of March, indicating large holders are moving coins to exchanges, preparing to sell. This typical distribution phase often means that even if prices rebound, they will encounter a "ceiling" of sell orders at some high level.

The ETF market is also worth noting: although spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.13 billion in March, the last week reversed to nearly $300 million in net outflows. Institutional buying did not continue to increase during this rebound; it looks more like "testing the waters."

On the bullish side:

However, things are not that simple. Data monitored by Fidelity shows that after April, funds are flowing back from gold ETPs to Bitcoin ETPs, reversing the risk-averse trend since late 2025. The implicit logic is: when the market begins to believe that the "worst macro moment has passed," funds rotate from defensive assets to risk-on assets. The scenario where gold outperformed Bitcoin in Q4 last year is being reversed.

Meanwhile, "perpetual buyers" led by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continue to increase holdings, pushing their Bitcoin positions to about 762k coins at the end of Q1, a new high. Japan's Metaplanet bought 5,075 BTC in Q1, bringing total holdings to 40,177 coins.

So now, an extremely counterintuitive picture emerges:

Institutions are "buying on one side," whales are "selling on the other." Retail investors are watching in panic, geopolitical pressures cause leveraged longs to frequently liquidate—over $300 million in longs were forcibly closed on April 2 alone.

Prices are stuck in a narrow range of $66,000–$68,500, like a rubber band pulled from both ends by two groups. Whoever lets go first will see the price snap in the other direction.

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2. Support and Resistance: A Few Numbers, Two Logics

First, look at support levels. Short-term strong support is at $66,000, a level that has been successfully reclaimed after multiple dips recently, forming a dual defense line psychologically and practically. If $66,000 breaks, the next key defense is around $65,000, the recent low point of correction, seen as the "last line of defense" for bulls.

But the real long-term support might be deeper. Fidelity Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer, in his latest technical analysis, points out that Bitcoin is following a long-term bottom trajectory called the "Power Law Support Line," which has historically supported major bear market lows. Currently, this line is around $60,000–$60,500. In other words, if the $66,000 support fails, $60,000 is the true "bottom line" that bulls must defend.

On the resistance side: the first resistance is at $68,500–$69,200, a key four-hour resistance zone and the bottom of the previous consolidation range, with significant trapped sell pressure. If the price can volume-break through this zone, the next target is $71,800–$72,200, a daily resistance level. Beyond that, $75,000–$76,500 is the "watershed" where the bear flag pattern would be definitively invalidated—most technical analysts agree that only a close above $76,000 can confirm the end of the downtrend.

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3. An Overlooked Variable: Trump Effect Enters a New Phase

This week, a detail worth noting: On April 2, Trump delivered a nationwide TV speech threatening "extremely severe strikes" on Iran, saying he would make them "retreat to the Stone Age." This rhetoric immediately caused Bitcoin to dip below $66,000, triggering about $440 million in liquidations.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's strategic reserve status is being formally incorporated into U.S. policy language. The White House signed an executive order on "Strategic Bitcoin Reserves," placing BTC alongside gold and Treasuries in reserve asset discussions, emphasizing its portability and censorship resistance. CFTC Chairman also stated this week that the agency is "ready to take over regulation of the entire $30 trillion crypto industry."

This creates a rather contradictory policy mix: on one hand, the president's aggressive rhetoric destroys risk appetite; on the other, the underlying regulatory framework is accelerating toward legalization and institutionalization. Bitcoin is undergoing a transition from a "speculative tool" to a "quasi-strategic asset," but this shift is increasing short-term volatility because the market has yet to find a proper "pricing framework" for it.

My view is: the market underestimates the "institutionalization" path and overestimates the "geopolitical shocks" path. Once the short-term panic from the Trump effect is digested, clearer regulation and reserve narratives could become structural factors supporting medium- to long-term valuation, rather than short-term speculative themes.

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4. Scenario Analysis and Trading Signals

Scenario 1 (about 45% probability): Continued oscillation between $66,000–$68,500

This is the most likely current scenario. Neither side has enough ammunition to break the deadlock: the time needed for gold fund flows to reverse is still ongoing, and whale selling pressure is waiting for higher prices to unload. Both bulls and bears are waiting for the other to yawn first. This phase is the hardest for retail investors—no motivation to chase the rally, no reason to cut losses.

Scenario 2 (about 30% probability): Break below $66,000, test $65,000 or even $60,000

If geopolitical tensions worsen (oil prices already above $110, and signs of redemption pressure in private credit markets), or ETF outflows accelerate, the probability of effectively breaking the $66,000 support increases significantly. The market would then test $65,000, possibly approaching the "Power Law Support Line" near $60,000.

Scenario 3 (about 25% probability): Volume breakout above $68,500, challenge $71,800

If Fed or Treasury policy signals shift, or Middle East tensions unexpectedly ease, combined with continued gold fund inflows, Bitcoin could rapidly break through the first resistance. But even if it surpasses $68,500, $75,000–$76,500 remains the real "breakout" zone. Before that, any rebound should be viewed as range-bound volatility rather than trend reversal.

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Finally, a straightforward truth:

The biggest risk in this current price range isn't choosing the wrong direction but being shaken out in extreme fear and missing the rebound in hesitation. April has historically been one of Bitcoin's strongest months, with an average return of 33.4% and a median of 7.57%. But 2026 April is clearly defying expectations—whales are selling, retail investors are scared, institutions are watching, and the president is shouting. This "four forces" standoff means the real directional decision is still ahead.

$66,000 is the bottom line, $68,500 is the signal. Hold the former, watch for the latter.

The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is patience to pull the trigger at the right moment.