$BTC Non-farm payrolls suppress liquidity, BTC short-term oscillates slightly weaker

Last night, the US March non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate fell back, pushing the market's expectations for a Fed rate cut further back, and the 10-year US Treasury yield rose. This is not good news for BTC — liquidity is unlikely to loosen in the short term.

Meanwhile, the Middle East situation remains unresolved, the Strait of Hormuz risk persists, oil prices fluctuate at high levels, and global markets' concerns about inflation rebound intensify. As long as oil prices do not fall back, upward movement in risk assets will be difficult.

The crypto market is also not strong enough. JPMorgan data shows that crypto fund flows in Q1 are significantly weaker than the same period last year, and there is less willingness to chase high prices off-market. But don’t rush to expect a one-sided crash — ETF and institutional support are still present, with support below.

My judgment: from tonight to tomorrow, BTC is likely to repeatedly fluctuate at high levels, with a slightly weak oscillation. When pushing higher, selling pressure reappears; when pulling back, institutions may absorb. The probability of a one-sided crash is low, mainly short-term high-level trading, and do not chase the rally.