⚠️ Risk Warning: The following content is based on publicly available information and market analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile; please make decisions cautiously.

1. Current Situation (as of April 4, 2026)

- Current Price: approximately $2,050–2,100
- Short-term: Consolidating with fluctuations, holding the key support at $2,000
- Medium-term: Deep decline from early-year highs (about -50% over six months), heavy trapped positions above
- Fundamentals: - Stablecoin total supply exceeds $150 billion, L2 active, on-chain demand steady
- High staking rates, ongoing deflationary mechanisms, tight supply
- U.S. clarifies ETH as a “digital commodity,” regulatory environment improves

2. Short-term Trend (April)

Likely: Range-bound fluctuation ($1,900–$2,300)

- Support: $2,000 → Strong support at $1,730–$1,750
- Resistance: $2,200 → Strong resistance at $2,400
- Key observation: - Whether it can hold above $2,200 (3-day closing), then a bullish turn is possible
- Whale movements, on-chain capital inflows or outflows

3. Mid- to Long-term (2026): Three Scenarios

1. Optimistic (probability ~65%)

- Trigger: Federal Reserve rate cuts, ETH ETF approval, Glamsterdam upgrade success, RWA explosion
- Targets: - First half: $3,000+
- End of year: $4,500–$7,500 (Standard Chartered, Citi bullish)

2. Neutral (probability ~25%)

- Trigger: Moderate macro conditions, stable regulation, steady application growth
- Targets: $3,000–$4,500 for consolidation and recovery

3. Pessimistic (probability ~10%)

- Trigger: Global recession, tightening regulation, upgrade failure, whale dumping
- Targets: Drop to $1,700–$1,400

4. Key Influencing Factors

- Positive: Glamsterdam upgrade (mid-year): performance and deflation expectations
- Institutional entry: clear regulation, ETF expectations
- Macro: Fed rate cut cycle (high expectation in June)
- Negative: whale selling pressure, short-term capital outflows
- Middle East geopolitics, U.S. stock market volatility transmission
- AI sector diverting crypto funds

5. Summary and Strategy

- Short-term (1–4 weeks): Slightly volatile, defend $2,000, look for bullish if breaking $2,200
- Medium-term (2026): Higher probability of upward fluctuation, but with high volatility
- Key nodes: Mid-year upgrade, Fed rate cuts, ETF developments

Would you like me to prepare a list of key price levels and observation indicators for ETH to help you track and analyze the trend?