I've been looking at on-chain Bitcoin data and noticed something interesting. Recently, the pattern of BTC selling suggests that traders are increasingly realizing losses. When the realized profit/loss ratio drops below 1, it seems to be a signal that a bearish phase lasting over the past six months has begun.

Looking back at past charts, after this signal appears, things tend to get pretty serious. During the 2022 bear market, this indicator fell below 1 and the price dropped 25% within six months. In 2018, it was even worse, with a decline of over 50% in just five months. If the current pattern repeats, there’s a possibility that the downtrend could continue for more than five more months.

By examining the MVRV Pricing Bands indicator, we can see when Bitcoin reaches extreme lows. Historically, the lowest band has coincided with the bottom of bear markets. The calculation suggests that this extreme low is around $44,000. If the decline continues, it could approach this level by August. Several analysts also see the $40,000–$50,000 range as a long-term bottom, so that’s not an unlikely forecast.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading in the $66,000 range, so there’s still some room. However, if this wave of loss realization intensifies, it’s possible that the price could fall to near $44,000 sooner than expected.