The private credit market is starting to break down—

Blue Owl's technology credit fund OTIC received a 40.7% redemption request in the last quarter, up from only 15.4% the previous quarter. More than doubling, this is not market volatility; investors are collectively rushing for the exits—
But the door is only slightly open: Blue Owl, following industry practice, has capped redemptions at 5%—
41% of investors want to exit, only 5% can leave—
The remaining 36% are locked inside—
This is not an isolated case: Ares has an 11.6% redemption request, Apollo 11.2%, and Blackstone's HPS is at 9.3%. The entire private credit industry is under pressure simultaneously—
The trigger is the panic over AI disrupting the software industry—software loans account for about 20% of these fund portfolios. If AI causes demand for traditional enterprise software to shrink, the default risk of underlying assets will be revalued—
The $1.8 trillion private credit market was born out of the low-interest-rate environment of the past decade. Its problem has never been returns but liquidity—assets are private, locked-in, and opaque—
Now, with high interest rates, AI disruption, and investors' nerves on edge, three threats strike simultaneously—
In a recent interview, Buffett mentioned signs of fragility in the banking system—
What he’s referring to might be exactly this—
#私募信贷 #BlueOwl #流动性危机 #Systemic Risk