4.2 BTC Market Analysis

Just know that Trump's speech didn't say anything good. Trump threatened to strike Iran's energy facilities, causing oil prices to continue rising, while other financial indices and futures declined. Trump believes Iran lacks sincerity and has no intention of engaging in substantive negotiations, and as a result, our retail accounts are footing the bill.

Yesterday, I suggested that the market would oscillate around the 69,300 level. If the oscillation doesn't break through, we still need to watch out for short-term resistance risks. Indeed, on a smaller scale, the highs and lows are gradually decreasing. Then, following Trump's speech, there was a quick pullback. Currently, we should follow the second scenario I mentioned yesterday: the market will continue to oscillate between 65,500 and 69,300. Next, we need to monitor whether the short-term 66,500 level can hold. If it does, there’s a chance for the market to oscillate at this level, make another low, and then challenge the downward trend line near 68,500. If it breaks below that, the market will continue to move around 65,500. However, 65,500 is a key support level in this move—if it breaks, the market could head toward 63,000.

Honestly, the upward space at this level remains limited because the market is gradually breaking down, and the bullish rebound strength is really weak. So, traders going long should set proper stop-losses. The overall trend and cycle are still downward, and it will take time and patience to wait. But from a bigger perspective, even if there is an upward rebound from this level, it’s likely to be a consolidation phase, and the market will still move lower.

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