Is there still one last drop for BTC? Why I believe the true bottom in 2026 might still be ahead

The question that most people care about right now isn’t whether Bitcoin will rebound, but: has this bear market already finished its drop?

If you look only at the surface price, BTC has fallen from its all-time high of about $126,200 in early October 2025 (around $126,200) to roughly $68,000 today, which looks like a big drop. But if you place it back into the context of historical cycles, you’ll find that the current level looks more like the latter part of a bear market—not necessarily the final bottom.

My core judgment for this market cycle is:

Bitcoin will very likely have one last significant drop, but that last drop may not be a one-time crash. It could be a composite process of “consolidation—rebound—then another retest of the lows.” The true major bottom is more likely to appear around Q4 2026. In terms of price, $50,000–$60,000 is the more realistic main bottom zone, while $40,000–$50,000 would be a deeper selloff zone that’s more likely to occur only in extreme panic conditions.

Why am I making this call?

I. Looking at the four-year cycle, it’s more like a “relay stage near the end of the bear market,” not the standard ultimate bottom

Fidelity’s整理 (organization) of Bitcoin’s past four-year cycles is very clear:

• In November 2013, the market made a major top; in January 2015, it made a bottom.
• In December 2017, it made a major top; in December 2018, it made a bottom.
• In November 2021, it made a major top; in November 2022, it made a bottom.

That means historically, the time from the top to the major bottom usually takes about 12 to 14 months.

For this cycle, both CoinGlass and Reuters records show that BTC set this cycle’s historical high in early October 2025, at a price around $125,000 to $126,200. If we follow that same rhythm, the corresponding time window for the major bottom would roughly fall between October and December 2026.

That’s also why I think the idea of “bottoming around this October” isn’t implausible—but the phrasing is best changed to:

If the historical rhythm largely continues, this cycle is more likely to enter the final bottom window in Q4 2026.

Because cycles can be used as a reference, but you can’t follow them mechanically or blindly. As factors like ETFs, institutional capital, macro liquidity, and the derivatives market increasingly influence the system, Bitcoin’s cycle is being stretched, scrambled—what you could call “macro-ized.” So you can use the four-year cycle to identify a rough range, but don’t treat it like a precise clock.

II. Based on price structure, this doesn’t look like it has already fully “drained” the downside—more like it still needs one last emotional reset

As of April 1, 2026, CoinGecko shows BTC is around $69,000. Compared with the high, this level is far below, but based on how much classic bear markets typically retrace from the peak, it hasn’t yet entered that kind of deep-water zone that’s “dramatically extreme” and “truly brutal.”

In past classic bear markets, the maximum drawdown from the top to the final bottom has been roughly:

• 2013–2015: from $1,150 down to $152, a drawdown of about 86.8%
• 2017–2018: from $19,800 down to $3,200, a drawdown of about 83.8%
• 2021–2022: from $69,000 down to $15,500, a drawdown of about 77.5%

And if this cycle falls from $126,198 to $50,000, the drawdown would be about 60.4%; if it falls to $45,000, the drawdown would be about 64.3%. This means:

If your $40,000–$50,000 target holds, then the drop in this bear market would be clearly shallower than prior complete bear markets. That’s not impossible, but it implies one thing: the institutionalization and ETF-ization forces supporting this cycle’s market must be significantly stronger than in the past.

That’s also why I would say:

$50,000–$60,000 can be preserved as a possibility, but it’s more like an “extreme dip zone,” not the main bottom zone I would prioritize most.

III. Based on on-chain valuation, around $50k+ has already started to approach a “value anchor”

In Glassnode’s latest data, BTC’s Realized Price is around $54,182. The significance of realized price is that it approximately reflects the average cost basis of holders across the entire network—and it can be understood as one of the core anchor points for “real capital costs” on-chain. Historically, when spot prices approach or even fall below the realized price, the market often enters a relatively deep value area.

At the same time, a widely used long-term trend indicator—the 200-week moving average—currently sits around $59,000 to $61,000. In many past bear markets, BTC’s final major bottom has formed around this moving average. Even when price breaks below it, it typically doesn’t stay deeply below it for long.

Put these two anchors together, and you arrive at a very important conclusion:

• Around $60,000: already within the zone that long-term value-focused funds will highly pay attention to
• Around $54,000: already approaching the core anchor of on-chain average cost
• $45,000–$50,000: implies the price must break clearly below realized price and create a more aggressive downward deviation from the 200-week moving average. This usually requires stronger macro negative shocks, liquidity shocks, or panic-driven selloffs that coincide

So from a valuation perspective, I would divide the bottom area into two layers:

• The first layer is the main bottom zone: $52,000–$60,000
• The second layer is the extreme panic “needle” zone: $45,000–$50,000

This is more complete than simply saying “the bottom is $40,000–$50,000,” and it’s also more aligned with what actually happens in trading.

IV. Why I still believe the “last significant drop” hasn’t fully ended

Because the real pressure in this cycle isn’t primarily a crypto-native problem—it’s the repricing of macro liquidity and risk appetite.

Recent Reuters reporting shows that Fed officials continued into late March and early April emphasizing that inflation risks have not been resolved. Oil price shocks and tariff-related factors make the inflation path more complicated; meanwhile, the U.S. labor market has also shown signs of weakening. In March, consumer confidence rose slightly, but job openings and hiring clearly fell, and the unemployment rate has climbed to 4.4%. That means the current macro environment is not friendly to risk assets:

Growth is weakening, but inflation isn’t cleaningly going back down—this “stagflation-like” feel tends to suppress valuations of high-beta assets.

For BTC, this can lead to two outcomes:

First, the market won’t easily give that kind of “fast V-shaped reversal” with a high valuation. Second, even if there’s a rebound in the middle, it’s more likely to evolve into another “second leg” down after a period of range-bound consolidation.

Of course, bears aren’t without resistance.

In March 2026, BTC ETFs finally showed a clear repair: net inflows were about $1.32 billion for the month, ending several months of continuous outflows. Coinbase Institutional also mentioned in its March report that the short-term holder SOPR improved, and institutional ETF capital returned—suggesting the market has some structural resilience.

So what does that mean?

It means this bear market may not fall in a straight line all the way as it has in the past. The higher probability path is likely:

ETF flows and long-term chips first absorb and help keep the price above or near $60,000; then, as macro pressure, profit-taking, and the repricing of risk assets stack up, it completes one more “final significant drop” that’s more lethal in nature.

V. My full scenario walk-through for what comes next

If you ask me for a more mature path projection, I would write it like this:

Scenario 1: A mild bear market bottom Time: Q3 to Q4 2026 Range: $55,000–$62,000 Characteristics: Price repeatedly grinds down as the market sentiment gradually cools. ETF capital absorption reduces the slope of the decline, but the market still lacks a sustained, trend-style reversal.

This is the path I think has the highest probability. Because it respects the cycle while also considering the volatility-dampening effect of institutional capital.

Scenario 2: An extreme panic “last significant drop” Time: Q4 2026 Range: $45,000–$50,000 Trigger conditions: Macro risks suddenly expand—e.g., inflation re-accelerates, the Fed becomes even more hawkish, risk assets sell off in sync, and ETFs again experience large-scale outflows.

I think this is not the main path, but it can’t be ruled out completely. Because once realized price and the 200-week moving average are both broken at the same time, sentiment can instantly switch from “late bear market” to “system-wide panic stampede.”

Scenario 3: The bear market ends early Time: Q2 to Q3 2026 Range: $60,000–$65,000 is already the bottom Conditions: Macro conditions loosen significantly, ETFs keep flowing back, and the market confirms that the drawdown after October 2025 is already sufficient.

This path is also possible, but I think current evidence isn’t strong enough. Because what we’re seeing now looks more like a stage of stabilization, not a confirmed resonance signal for a higher-level reversal.

VI. Final conclusion

I think BTC will very likely have one last significant drop. The true major bottom is more likely to appear around Q4 2026. In terms of price, $50,000–$60,000 is the main bottom zone worth focusing on most, while $40,000–$50,000 is the extreme panic zone under macro shocks.