Recently, there has been increasing talk that the altseason of 2025 could be truly explosive. And indeed, if you look at the data, many indicators point to the possibility of a significant move in altcoins. But here’s the thing — you need to understand where the opportunity ends and the danger begins.

I get the impression that many people ignore the signals the market is constantly sending. When we talk about altseason, it refers to the moment when capital actively shifts from Bitcoin to altcoins. This happens when BTC reaches its peak, the price stabilizes, and then money begins to look for new opportunities.

I monitor several key indicators that really help understand where we are in the cycle. First, there’s the psychology of FOMO among small investors. When Google Trends for Bitcoin hits its maximum, social media is flooded with discussions, and even people who don’t understand crypto start talking about it — that’s a signal. In 2017, when BTC hit $20,000, Google Trends reached 100 points. That was pure FOMO. Conversely, in May 2025, even when Bitcoin surpassed $100,000, Google Trends remained at around 37. This means FOMO has not yet fully exploded.

The second point is the activity of old wallets. These are addresses holding coins for over 155 days. When they start selling, it usually means they are taking profits, and this often precedes the peak. If the number of coins in old wallets stops growing or even decreases, that’s a red flag.

Another important indicator is the SOPR index — the ratio of spent output profit. When SOPR consistently stays above 1 and reaches peaks, it indicates many people are simultaneously taking profits. During previous peaks in 2017 and 2021, SOPR often exceeded 1 and then sharply dropped when mass selling began.

You can’t ignore NUPL — the net unrealized profit index. High NUPL values above 0.75 typically indicate extreme euphoria, which is observed precisely at peaks. In 2021, NUPL reached around 0.9. If this index enters the zone above 0.75–0.8, many holders have huge profits, and the probability of profit-taking is high.

The Bitcoin profitability index is also worth watching. Currently, it’s around 202%, meaning Bitcoin is valued at twice its average cost. But when this index exceeds 300% — as it did at the peaks of 2017 and 2021 — investors usually start actively taking profits. We haven’t reached that level yet, but we should be prepared.

Bitcoin dominance is a direct indicator of when altseason reaches its peak. When BTC.D drops to 38–40%, it means most of the money has already moved into altcoins. History shows: in 2017–2018, BTC.D fell from 86% to 39%, and in 2020–2021 from 70% to 38%. If in 2025 we see a similar decline, that’s a strong signal.

And of course, media hype. When cryptocurrency becomes a hot topic everywhere — in news, on TV, YouTube — it usually means the crowd has already entered the game. This is a rare phenomenon that typically occurs at the very peak of the cycle.

What to do practically? If you plan to trade during altseason, make a plan in advance. Don’t buy at the peak when prices are rising sharply. Distribute your capital wisely, set profit-taking goals and stop-losses. When indicators simultaneously signal a peak — SOPR is high, NUPL is above 0.75, BTC.D is falling — start gradually reducing your altcoin positions. Keep some capital in stablecoins or Bitcoin so you don’t freeze everything.

History shows that after the peak, the market usually falls by 70–75%. But this is also an opportunity to accumulate. The periods of 2018–2019 and 2022 were excellent moments to buy at low prices. The main thing is to stay calm, not let media and FOMO influence your decisions, understand market cycles, and know exactly when to act.