An interesting observation from Raoul Pal: he believes that the true altseason will start specifically in 2026, not earlier. The guy knows what he's talking about — a former Goldman Sachs executive and founder of Real Vision, so his opinion is worth listening to.

The essence of his logic is this. Currently, the market is quiet, and many interpret this as weakness. In reality, it’s just a pause between cycles. When business activity declines, investors hide their money in safe assets. But when the economy starts to accelerate again, capital gradually shifts into risky instruments — that’s when the altseason arrives.

Pal believes the market is being prepared for a flood of liquidity. The White House and major investment funds are already moving in that direction. Bitcoin, by the way, moves in tandem with global liquidity — almost all of its volatility reflects the inflows and outflows of money in the world economy.

Right now, the price reflects fear of a recession, although the chances of one are minimal. The main game revolves around currency devaluation. Governments need fresh money to service their debts, so liquidity grows year after year. This automatically lifts all risky assets. The process is systemic and unstoppable.

Since 2008, business cycles have become longer and more predictable. After significant changes to debt structures in 2022, the next peak has shifted to 2026. According to Pal, that’s when the most powerful liquidity impulse will come.

So, the current weakness in crypto is not a downturn but simply a lag behind the macro cycle. When liquidity starts to grow, the altseason will develop faster than all other assets. The main phase of the movement has not even begun yet. An interesting prospect if he’s right.