The Market Doesn't Need You to Guess Tops and Bottoms, It Needs You to Understand Structure

The crypto market right now is causing many people to feel confused. 76,000 may not be the peak of the current rebound, but clearly expectations have had to be adjusted downward compared to a month ago. When the market changes speed and structure, the first thing that needs to change is not the position, but the mindset. Peaks and Troughs Are Less Important Than Price Zones Debating exactly “where the peak is, where the bottom is” actually doesn’t add much value. The market moves within zones, not based on an absolute number. For example: Above 77,000 can be considered the peak zone of this rebound. Below 59,000 can be the bottom zone of the next decline. Trading within zones allows investors more flexibility, rather than being stuck with the mindset of “hitting the exact point.” Value Investing Still Has an Advantage Combining fundamental analysis and macro context always offers a longer-term advantage compared to just technical analysis and short-term cash flow. The core lies in barriers: Value investing requires knowledge, patience, and the ability to withstand volatility. Technical speculation is easier to access but also causes most people to be swept up by herd mentality. In an increasingly complex market, the advantage is no longer about “being quick,” but about “deep understanding.” Discussing the Major Bottom Now Is Unnecessary Although estimating the major cycle bottom around 37,000–49,000 is possible, talking too much about it at this point is unnecessary. A more practical approach is to find the bottom of the first half of the year, likely in the 52,000–56,000 range. More importantly, the 49,000 mark (bottom on 08/05/2024) is likely a boundary that should not be broken in the baseline scenario. Market Structure Is Becoming More Complex The most notable point is not the price, but the movement structure. The 2018 bear market had only 3 major weekly cycles. In 2022, there were 5 cycles. The current cycle has a probability of forming 7 weekly cycles. Conversely, the bull markets of 2019–2021 had 5 weekly cycles, while 2023–2025 already show 7 cycles. This indicates that cycle structures are becoming more complex. As the number of cycles increases, volatility widens, and there are more “liquidity sweep” moves — and retail investors, even if they understand cycles, are very easily phased out of the game. If we assume each weekly structure lasts about 4 months (5 months up – 3 months down), then the next bullish cycle could potentially extend to 9 structures. Conclusion The market is no longer as simple as before. Cycles still exist, but their movement is becoming more sophisticated. In this context: Don’t try to precisely predict peaks and bottoms. Trade within zones. Focus on structure and capital management. Understand that the more cycles there are, the harder it is to “sit still and win.” The market doesn’t eliminate the unsmart; it eliminates those who fail to adapt.