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NXT Stock: No. 1 Solar Play Is Near Buy Point On War, Outlook
$ 124.08
IBD Stock Analysis
IBD Composite Rating
94/99
Industry Group Ranking
120/197
Emerging Pattern
Double Bottom
Nextpower (NXT) is Tuesday’s IBD Stock Of The Day as the supplier of tracking systems and other gear for solar power plants shines amid a mixed performance for the sector. NXT stock climbed as oil prices rebounded, showing impressive relative strength as it nears a buy point.
NXT is ranked No. 1 in the Energy-Solar industry group by IBD Stock Checkup. The stock holds a 94 IBD Composite Rating. The single rating combines both fundamental and technical factors. That partly factors its top SMR rating, covering sales growth, profit margins and return on equity.
Nextpower Rebrands
Nextpower, formerly Nextracker, changed its name in November to reflect the broadening of its focus well beyond tracker systems, which help solar arrays maintain maximum exposure to the sun.
Analysts back that vision. In a March 10 coverage initiation, GLJ Research gave NXT stock a buy rating and a 147 price target, according to The Fly investment news site. The firm says the utility-scale solar market is rapidly concentrating into a handful of top developers. It sees Nextpower as “one of the only vendors with the execution capability” to vertically consolidate the picks and shovels for the solar industry.
On March 17, Jefferies analyst Julien Demoulin-Smith raised the firm’s price target to 138 from 122, keeping a buy rating, based on Nextpower’s ability to sustain elevated growth as some peers hit speed bumps.
Earnings Outlook
Analysts expect Nextpower to have a soft fiscal fourth quarter, with earnings per share down 29% and revenue down 10% from a year ago, according to FactSet. Partly due to a hit from tariffs, which had less of an impact on the first half of calendar 2025, EPS is projected to grow just 3.5% in the current fiscal year that ends in March, with revenue growing 18%.
For the next fiscal year, analysts expect EPS growth of 8% and sales growth of 12%.
During the December quarter, “customers wanted product faster than we had forecast,” CEO Daniel Shugar said at a March 5 Jefferies energy conference. He added that “the demand environment has remained very strong” both in the U.S. and abroad since the Jan. 27 earnings report.
The order backlog grew to over $5 billion in the latest quarter, more than five times quarterly revenue of $909 million.
“The number of (electric power company) participants in the market, the size of their projects and the strength of the projects and sophistication has increased,” Shugar said. “Fundamentally, the biggest tailwind we have is the economics (of low-cost solar) and the need for power.”
Neither Hail Nor Wind
Shugar told the Jefferies conference that Nextpower has tripled its R&D budget over the past three years to around $100 million. The company has also brought in new technology via nine acquisitions in the past 18 months, helping to expand its growing product line.
Before it diversified the product portfolio beyond trackers, Shugar said that Nextpower was able to deliver customers a 6% to 7% levelized cost of energy advantage (LCOE) vs. “typical trackers.” LCOE is the lifetime cost per unit of energy produced. Now, with the fuller product suite, the advantage has grown to 15%, he says.
Among the innovations is Hail Stow, which enables power companies to brace for a hailstorm — even baseball-sized hail. Shugar said that Nextpower did the same thing for solar panels to survive typhoons and hurricanes.
With help from its acquisition of Origami in September, one of Nextpower’s new products is advanced frames for solar panels that use a special steel to provide improved long-term reliability vs. legacy aluminum frames. In February, Nextpower won a three-year deal with JinkoSolar (JKS) to provide more than one gigawatt of steel frames.
NXT Stock Action
Shares of NXT rose 5.3% to 123.15 on Tuesday afternoon. The stock is just pennies below a 123.24 buy point from a handle on the end of a double-bottom base.
Market volatility means it is a time to be building watchlists of stocks near a buy point, not risking new purchases. IBD’s Stock Market Exposure guide currently recommends investors have 0 to 20% of their portfolios invested.
Nextpower’s relative strength line, the blue line in IBD charts, is flashing a blue dot, showing the stock is at a 52-week high. The RS line tracks a stock’s performance vs. the S&P 500. When it hits a new high before breaking out, that’s generally bullish.
NXT is part of the IBD 50 flagship list of leading growth stocks.
Be sure to read IBD’s The Big Picture column after each trading day to get the latest on the prevailing stock market trend and what it means for your trading decisions.
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