When Will This Crypto Bear Market Find Its Floor? Gold Prices Offer a Clue

According to analysis from Mercado Bitcoin, a major Brazilian cryptocurrency exchange, the ongoing crypto bear market could be approaching critical inflection points—though the timeline depends significantly on how you measure Bitcoin’s value. With Bitcoin now trading around $70,850, up 4.4% over the past day, investors are closely watching whether we’re nearing capitulation or merely in an interim bounce. The divergence between Bitcoin’s performance in gold versus US dollars reveals fascinating insights into both macro conditions and investor psychology during extended market downturns.

Bitcoin’s Two Different Bottom Scenarios: Gold vs. Dollar Perspective

When priced in US dollars, Bitcoin’s recent peak came in October 2025 at approximately $126,000. If the current cycle follows the historical pattern of 12-to-13-month bear market phases, a potential floor could emerge around late 2026. However, when measured in gold terms—a lens that captures capital rotation flows—the picture shifts meaningfully.

Bitcoin reached its gold-denominated high in January 2025. Applying the same 12-to-13-month cycle pattern to the crypto bear market suggests a potential bottom arriving around February 2026, with recovery momentum possibly building in March. This distinction matters because it shows how institutional money has been fleeing risk assets. Since February, the divergence between crypto bear market signals in different denominations has become one of the most tracked metrics by professional traders.

Rony Szuster, Head of Research at Mercado Bitcoin, highlighted this dynamic in his recent analysis, noting that gold’s outperformance reflects deeper macroeconomic shifts rather than any fundamental weakness in Bitcoin itself.

The Macro Forces Reshaping Risk Appetite

Since the beginning of Donald Trump’s new administration, global markets have faced mounting pressures: aggressive trade tariffs, intensifying US domestic institutional disputes, and escalating geopolitical tensions with China and Iran. The military conflicts stemming from Iran tensions have further destabilized expectations.

The World Uncertainty Index has surged dramatically amid these developments, demonstrating investor anxiety at elevated levels. Gold has capitalalized on this shift spectacularly, appreciating more than 80% over the past twelve months to reach $5,280 per ounce. As capital has migrated toward traditional safe havens, the crypto bear market deepened more rapidly when measured against bullion than against the dollar. This capital rotation story is central to understanding why Bitcoin’s weakness appears worse when denominated in gold.

ETF Outflows vs. Institutional Accumulation: Competing Forces

The picture becomes more nuanced when examining actual fund flows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced significant redemptions, with approximately $7.8 billion withdrawn since November—representing roughly 12% of the total $61.6 billion AUM. This fear-driven selling reinforces the crypto bear market narrative and creates a perception of universal capitulation.

Yet beneath the surface, large-scale investors—colloquially known as “whales”—paint a starkly different picture. Rather than fleeing, major institutional players from Abu Dhabi, including Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments, actually increased their spot Bitcoin ETF exposure in mid-February. Their actions suggest sophisticated investors view current market levels as buying opportunities within the broader bearish cycle, not as signs to exit positions entirely.

The Case for Strategic Accumulation During Fear

This institutional behavior supports Rony Szuster’s central thesis: the current environment, despite the crypto bear market headwinds, represents statistically favorable entry price zones based on historical patterns. He recommends that investors employ dollar-cost averaging strategies—systematically purchasing at intervals rather than attempting to time a single bottom.

“Historically, buying during periods of fear has been more effective than buying during euphoria,” Szuster wrote. “Does this mean we’ve already hit the bottom? No. But statistically, we’re entering the window where the best average purchase prices typically get built.” This perspective reframes the crypto bear market not as a disaster, but as a cyclical opportunity for disciplined capital allocation.

Recent Price Action and Near-Term Catalysts

Bitcoin’s recent move above the $70,000 threshold, arriving after US President Trump announced a temporary pause on Iranian energy infrastructure strikes, demonstrates how geopolitical developments continue dictating short-term price action. The broader crypto and tech sectors rallied accordingly, with Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin each rising approximately 5%, while mining stocks and the S&P 500 each gained roughly 1.2%.

Analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s next directional move hinges primarily on whether oil prices stabilize and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes. Stabilization could support another test of the $74,000-to-$76,000 range, whereas further deterioration could push prices back toward the mid-$60,000 area. Until geopolitical tensions ease, volatility will likely remain elevated even as the underlying crypto bear market cycle potentially approaches resolution.