David Sacks Points to the Beginning of a New Economic Cycle: Prospects for the Crypto Market

David Sax, Chair of the Science and Technology Advisory Board, has presented an optimistic forecast for the U.S. economy that could significantly impact cryptocurrency assets. His macroeconomic analysis has attracted the attention of investors and analysts amid Bitcoin struggling with price pressure below $71,000 and Ethereum barely staying above $2,160.

Meanwhile, the altcoin market is also experiencing a challenging recovery period. Against the backdrop of overall bearish pessimism, experts are actively discussing what scenario awaits the market in 2026: the end of a four-year bull cycle or the realization of an ambitious five-year supercycle.

U.S. Economic Data Rewrite the Macroeconomic Scenario

David Sax presented a compelling set of economic indicators showing acceleration, not slowdown, in U.S. growth. He estimates that real GDP exceeded 4% in Q3 and reached 5% in Q4. The most impressive figure was the creation of 172,000 private jobs in January, significantly surpassing market expectations of 70,000 vacancies. At the same time, the unemployment rate decreased to 4.3%.

A particularly notable shift is in employment structure: the public sector reduced its workforce, while private businesses expanded, especially in the non-residential construction segment related to the deployment of AI data centers. This indicates qualitative, rather than superficial, recovery.

Capital Investments as a Key Growth Driver

According to Sax’s analysis, the main driver of economic expansion is capital investment. Four leading hyperscale cloud providers plan to spend approximately $600 billion this year alone. This provides a substantial boost to GDP, even without accounting for productivity gains from AI infrastructure and software deployment.

If the current phase is indeed an early stage of expansion rather than a late stage of depletion, the macroeconomic picture changes dramatically. With strong growth and moderate inflation, liquidity conditions remain favorable, preventing a sharp tightening of monetary policy.

Economic Expansion Historically Favorable for Cryptocurrencies

David Sax emphasizes that risk appetite increases during economic expansion phases, especially when innovations stimulate new waves of investment. If the global economy enters a productivity cycle driven by artificial intelligence—similar to the internet boom of the late 1990s—capital will not remain passive.

Historically, Bitcoin and other crypto assets show the most significant growth when three factors coincide: liquidity expansion, economic growth, and an innovation breakthrough. Capital will shift into growth assets, among which cryptocurrencies stand out due to their volatility and potential returns.

Thus, if David Sax’s analysis is correct and we are truly at the beginning rather than the end of an economic cycle, this greatly revises the outlook for risk markets. Instead of a cycle ending, a new growth period may be beginning, with cryptocurrencies receiving support from macroeconomic factors.