Bitcoin's Curved Floor Pattern Indicates a Rally Opportunity: Basic Signal Analysis Amid Macro Uncertainty

Bitcoin (BTC) is now showing a rounded bottom pattern that resembles a base formation in 2023, just before a 130% surge throughout 2024. However, the current market environment differs fundamentally in terms of liquidity flows, ETF dynamics, and macroeconomic conditions. With BTC price at $71.25K in the first quarter of 2026, a key question for investors is whether the identified rounded bottom pattern will repeat previous bullish cycles or simply represent a temporary consolidation in a more cautious market.

Bitcoin’s Foundation Carved in the Extreme Risk Zone

The most prominent technical signal is that Bitcoin has spent 25 consecutive days in the “extreme high risk” zone—its longest streak since measurements began. Historically, this extreme risk zone marks important phases of base formation, where sellers are exhausted and buyers start testing bid levels more boldly. Swissblock analysis notes that prolonged periods in this extreme condition have been associated with true lows or peak-down phases that have already played out.

The rounded bottom pattern seen in BTC price data reflects a gradual surrender process—selling volume slowly wanes while prices move within a narrow range. Technical support around 45,000 remains relevant, while deeper historical floors lie between 30,000 and 16,000. Transitioning from extreme high risk to more moderate risk conditions has often coincided with the start of a sufficiently strong bullish expansion.

Technical Signals Meet Flow Doubts

While the rounded bottom pattern suggests an intriguing base setup, demand and supply dynamics are not aligned with the enthusiasm expected. Recent 30-day data—tracked by RugaResearch—show demand fluctuating between positive and negative, with selling pressure easing but not yet replaced by sustained buying flows.

More significantly, ETF flows tell a divergent story. Over the past 90 days, gold ETFs have exceeded inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, while Bitcoin funds have experienced net outflows. This indicates a lower risk appetite among institutional investors—favoring defensive assets over crypto exposure at this phase. This “risk-off” sentiment contradicts conditions typically preceding large bullish rallies, where capital usually flows into high-risk assets.

Market analysts like Michael van de Poppe emphasize the importance of distinguishing between on-chain signals indicating base formation and macro signals still showing doubt. BTC supply/demand metrics reveal complex interactions among retail behavior, whales, and long-term holders—yet these dynamics have not yet demonstrated large-scale confidence accumulation.

Market Dynamics: Inflation and Liquidity Break the Base Narrative

Macroeconomic factors remain a significant obstacle to rapid, widespread liquidity recovery. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) metric stands at nearly 2.9% year-over-year overall, with core components around 3.0% and core services well above 3.4%. This sticky inflation suggests the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a tight liquidity stance for a longer period than previous recoveries.

The rounded bottom pattern in Bitcoin does not guarantee a quick rebound if macro conditions stay tight. Market observers like Willy Woo warn that a short-term rally toward 70,000–80,000 may face repeated selling pressure in a still-bearish liquidity regime. Widespread liquidity expansion—usually triggered by inflation easing or monetary policy pivots—has not yet appeared on the near horizon.

This context underscores that technical patterns alone are insufficient to confirm a sustainable bottom. Demand for a simultaneous macro and micro liquidity approval—ETF inflows and monetary expansion—is needed to turn the base setup into a significant upward move.

On-Chain Metrics Indicate Potential Accumulation

On-chain analysis offers more nuanced insights. The interaction between BTC price and on-chain distribution of supply in profit versus loss provides detailed behavior patterns of holders. These extreme periods show shifts in how different market cohorts—from small retail to long-term holders—react to current price levels.

Studies from Ecoinometrics and others note that profit/loss metrics align with key cycle turning points. When most holders are “underwater” (at a loss), new accumulation phases often begin within a few weeks. However, this signal only works if new buyers enter with confidence, not just testing prices for speculation.

Recent data shows buying momentum forming at certain levels, though volume remains modest. Whale-sized purchases are still below the intensity seen before the 2024 rally. This gradual accumulation aligns with the rounded bottom narrative—slow but steady base formation, not a sudden capitulation followed by an instant bounce.

Price Scenarios and Critical Levels to Watch

For the upcoming period, key price levels to monitor include:

Major Support: The 45,000 zone remains a critical short-term support. A break below could open the way toward 30,000, while strong defense around 45,000 would reinforce the ongoing rounded bottom thesis.

Resistance: The 70,000–80,000 zone acts as a near-term resistance area where selling pressure has previously halted rallies in more bearish regimes. Breaking above 80,000 would require much stronger buying momentum and more expansive liquidity.

Confirmation Indicators: Watch ETF flows into Bitcoin spot and gold ETFs over the next 90 days. If Bitcoin inflows begin surpassing gold, it would signal a more definitive risk sentiment shift. Also, review inflation data releases and Federal Reserve guidance—actual easing in liquidity stance would be a strong catalyst for bullish expansion.

Analytical Foundation and Investor Implications

In conclusion, the rounded bottom pattern in Bitcoin does present a technically plausible base formation. However, on-chain signals aligned with macro liquidity endorsements remain loose. Investors and traders considering entry points should carefully evaluate whether macro conditions have shifted enough to support a sustained rally or if this pattern is merely a consolidation phase within a broader long-term bear trend.

A dual approach—recognizing bullish signals on charts while remaining cautious of macro risks—remains the most prudent stance. If a bullish expansion occurs, it is likely to proceed more slowly and be more sensitive to inflation data, interest rate expectations, and regulatory developments than previous rallies.