Michael van de Poppe's Warning on Crypto Market Turning Point ~Looking Back at the Impact of PPI Announcement and Clarity Act

In February 2025, market analyst Michael van de Poppe pointed out that the cryptocurrency market was at a critical juncture. At that time, predictions suggested that the release of the PPI, Nvidia’s earnings report, and the future of the Clarity Act could significantly influence the direction of digital assets.

Looking back over the past year, it’s clear that the psychological indicators and technical signals van de Poppe highlighted indeed served as key markers of a market turning point.

Fear Index at 5 — What Extreme Pessimism Signaled

Back then, the Fear & Greed Index was just at 5, indicating extreme fear. This was lower than levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the FTX collapse in 2022, and the Bitcoin hard fork controversy in 2018.

Such extreme pessimism suggested that market participants were panicking and selling off assets excessively. Paradoxically, reaching this level of fear is also a classic signal that a market bottom may be near. This phenomenon, known as capitulation, indicates that many bearish investors have fully cut their losses, often preceding a potential reversal.

CME Smart Money Signal Shift — Large Traders’ Movements Indicating Opportunities

According to data from CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange), which van de Poppe also referenced, institutional investors and professional traders had begun shifting their positions significantly by February. Specifically, they moved from bearish (short) positions to net long (buying) positions.

Historical data shows that such shifts among large traders often precede upward trends. In fact, there have been periods where Bitcoin surged approximately 190% in 2023 and about 70% in 2025. Predictions at the time discussed the possibility of Bitcoin reaching around $85,000.

Beyond these technical signals, macroeconomic indicators measuring market fundamentals were also crucial.

Why Economic Data and Tech Earnings Drive the Market

On February 24, ADP employment change data, followed by Nvidia’s Q4 earnings on the 25th, and the weekend’s Producer Price Index (PPI) release were all highly significant events for the crypto market.

Nvidia’s earnings, in particular, have historically impacted the entire crypto space. The strong reactions of AI-related tokens like Near Protocol (NEAR) and Bittensor (TAO) demonstrated that a thriving tech sector often fuels crypto market gains.

Conversely, if the PPI data exceeds expectations, it could signal persistent inflation, prompting risk-off sentiment. If it falls short, it might indicate easing inflation, potentially increasing market volatility.

Declining Probability of Clarity Act Passage — Regulatory Environment Complexity

While market sentiment and technical indicators showed signs of bottoming out, policy developments told a different story. According to Polymarket’s prediction market, the likelihood of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 dropped sharply from 72% to 42%.

This bill was a key piece of legislation concerning US stablecoin regulation but faced strong opposition from the banking industry. Since stablecoins were seen as threatening traditional banking profits and fee structures, entrenched financial interests obstructed its passage.

As a result, a complex situation emerged where market sentiment suggested a bottoming, but regulatory uncertainty persisted. Market analysts like van de Poppe evaluated these multi-factor dynamics to gauge the next phase of the market.

Looking back, the technical signals from February 2025 proved to be significant indicators that helped shape subsequent market movements.