XRP Price Prediction 2026: Why the Price Could Still Decline Despite Positive ETF Inflows

What is “Disregard”? Simply put, it is a strange but very common market phenomenon in the cryptocurrency space. When we say “disregard positive ETF flows,” we are pointing out a contradiction: long-term capital inflows into XRP are not enough to push the price up; on the contrary, XRP’s price still faces a risk of dropping to $1 in the near future. As of March 17, 2026, XRP is trading around $1.55 after an 8.36% increase in the past 24 hours, but the medium-term outlook remains highly uncertain due to this disregard between long-term capital flows and short-term selling pressure.

What Is Disregard? Understanding the Contradiction Between ETF Capital Flows and Short-Term XRP Price Pressure

To understand why ETF capital flows cannot save XRP from declining, we need to distinguish two concepts: “structural” capital flows (ETF) and “instantaneous” flows (derivatives trading, whale activity). ETF flows represent the long-term commitment of institutional investors, but they are not enough to counteract the strong short-term selling pressure from large sellers and derivatives traders.

Despite these positive capital flows, the cryptocurrency market (including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP) remains in limbo as traders await clearer trend signals. On-chain data shows that although ETFs are attracting capital, the spot demand from retail investors has significantly weakened, creating a gap between long-term reasons to buy and short-term selling pressures. This is why positive ETF flows are offset by other factors, leaving XRP’s price facing considerable downside risk.

Network Activity Decline: A Clear Warning Sign

One of the earliest warning signals comes from the XRP Ledger itself. The number of active addresses per day has fallen to around 19,000, indicating a significant decline in community engagement. Historically, sustained price increases for XRP have always required strong network activity expansion. The current contraction suggests natural demand has waned, making it difficult for the price to absorb new supply effectively.

When network activity slows down, it signals that investor enthusiasm has diminished. In the crypto space, high network activity often leads to sustained bullish rallies. However, with only 19,000 active addresses daily, XRP faces weaker fundamental demand, creating a challenging environment for prices to stay above the key support level of $1.78.

Sellers Hold the Advantage: Why Every Recovery Is Short-Lived

Data from derivatives markets provides further evidence of XRP’s continued weakness. The buy/sell ratio of takers on major exchanges remains consistently below 1.0, meaning sell orders dominate buy orders. In short, every time the price makes a slight rebound, large sellers step in to “block” the upward effort. This explains why XRP struggles to sustain upward momentum even amid positive news.

This behavior reflects a fundamental psychology: whale sellers are actively distributing their positions rather than waiting for a strong breakout. When taker sell orders always outweigh buy orders, it indicates that demand is insufficient to absorb the selling pressure. Currently, with 7.7 million addresses holding XRP but only 19,000 active daily, the ownership-to-activity ratio is unbalanced, suggesting most investors are just holding without trading or are waiting for a chance to sell.

Declining Open Interest: Traders’ Retreating Sentiment

Open interest in XRP derivatives has dropped sharply from over $3 billion to below $1 billion. This decline is a worrying sign, indicating that derivatives traders are actively reducing their positions rather than preparing for a breakout or accumulation. When open interest falls alongside price declines, it often reflects a “risk-off” sentiment rather than healthy accumulation for the future.

This is significant: professional traders do not feel disregarded about an upcoming reversal. Instead, they are reassessing risks and pulling back from their positions. When open interest decreases, it signals that derivatives trading volume—often a sign of market enthusiasm—is waning. This explains why, despite positive ETF flows, XRP’s price can continue to decline.

Key Technical Levels and Short-Term Outlook

Buyers of XRP are failing to revive upward momentum, as the price has been in a strong downtrend since early Q4 2025. Although some signs of recovery appeared since mid-March, this does not mean the bulls have regained control. The weekly supertrend indicator has turned bearish for the first time this year, a notable technical signal.

XRP is currently approaching a critical support zone at $1.78, and defending this level is crucial to maintain any hope of recovery. However, the weekly RSI indicator remains in a downtrend since early 2025. If these support levels are not tested lower before a potential rebound, XRP is forecasted to continue declining toward $1.50 in the coming days.

If the $1.78 support is broken, a large liquidity gap will emerge. The next major demand zone lies between $1.00 and $0.80, where long-term investors might attempt accumulation. This is why projections for XRP’s price at the end of 2026 range from $1.75 to $5.05, depending on whether buyers can regain control at lower support levels.

Conclusion: What Is Disregard and Its Significance for XRP

Despite positive ETF capital flows, XRP’s price still faces significant downside risk. This disregard—where positive factors are offset by stronger negative forces—is an inherent part of the cryptocurrency market cycle. ETF flows represent long-term positioning, but short-term price movements are still dominated by spot demand, derivatives activity, and community sentiment.

Network activity cooling, whale distribution, and derivatives traders retreating have created an unfavorable environment for prices. Individual ETF capital flows are insufficient to reverse current selling pressures. XRP’s weakness is not a contradiction with positive ETF flows but reflects the complex short-term market structure.

Currently, the $1.00 level stands out as a key psychological and structural zone that could determine whether XRP stabilizes or continues to seek deeper liquidity. Until demand returns, selling pressure diminishes, and open interest stabilizes, the risk of decline remains high. Investors should closely monitor the $1.78 and $1.50 support levels to assess whether the downtrend continues or begins to stabilize. Understanding this disregard phenomenon provides a more solid basis for making trading decisions amid market uncertainty.