Forget about expecting the Fed to cut rates directly in March. The market pricing has essentially already ruled that out.

This reveals something important: what the market fears most right now isn't higher interest rates per se, but rather that inflation, employment, and geopolitical risks haven't reached the level where the Fed would ease.

For risk assets, this environment is quite awkward. They want to rally but lack the tailwind of rate cut expectations; they want to crash but need to watch how liquidity and sentiment continue to play out.

Bottom line: March will likely see rates held steady. The real focus shouldn't be on whether they cut this time, but rather on what Powell says afterward and whether the door to rate cuts reopens before June.