Aker BP raises 2026 capex to up to $6.7 bln, citing Valhall and FX moves

Navamya Acharya

Fri, February 13, 2026 at 4:22 PM GMT+9 2 min read

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Investing.com – Aker BP ASA (OL:AKRBP) on Friday revised its fiscal 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $6.2 billion to $6.7 billion, approximately 20% higher than analyst expectations.

The Oslo-listed exploration and production company attributed the increase to higher spending on the Valhall field, foreign exchange movements and maintenance of existing project schedules. The Valhall investment will add 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil equivalent in resources.

RBC Capital Markets projects the company can generate more than $10 billion in free cash flow from 2026 through 2030 at $65 per barrel Brent crude, benefiting from Norway’s enhanced tax rules that provide an 86.9% tax shield on the majority of 2026 and 2027 capital spending.

The brokerage estimates Aker BP can increase dividend growth to 10% annually from fiscal 2027 through 2030, double the company’s current 5% guidance.

That acceleration would deliver $10.2 billion to shareholders over the five-year period, representing more than 55% of the company’s current NOK173.6 billion market capitalization.

Production is forecast to decline 8% year-over-year to 386,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026 before recovering to 525,000 boe/d by 2028. The company reported 420,100 boe/d in fiscal 2025, with fourth-quarter output at 410,600 boe/d.

Chief executive Karl Johnny Hersvik and chief financial officer David Tønne told analysts at a meeting following full-year results that the company remains “always ready” for mergers and acquisitions at high hurdle rates, according to the RBC note.

Management is deploying artificial intelligence to reshape exploration processes and maintain exposure across basins and high-pressure, high-temperature plays.

The production recovery hinges on approximately 80,000 boe/d net from the Valhall PFP, Skarv extension, Utsira High and Yggdrasil developments starting in the second half of 2026.

Those projects received final investment decisions in late 2022. Phase 3 of the Johan Sverdrup field will also contribute to output growth.

RBC projects free cash flow will reach $3 billion in fiscal 2028 as capital expenditure declines to $4 billion annually from fiscal 2027, down from $6.45 billion estimated for 2026.

Aker BP operates exclusively on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. Aker ASA holds 37.1% of shares, BP Plc owns 27.9% and Norway’s Government Pension Fund holds 3.6%.

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