3.8 Evening Analysis! Will Bitcoin Experience a Major Drop on Monday?

Bitcoin's recent movement looks familiar. After a rally, it consolidates in a bullish flag pattern, just like the previous upward surge. However, this time it coincided with the weekend, slowing down the capital flow and extending the correction period. Currently, it is at the breakout point of the upper trendline of the flag.

The key to this consolidation is the validity of the breakout. On the hourly chart, as long as volume supports a steady hold above 68112, it signals a clear right-side long entry. The first resistance target is the 68305-68936 zone. If it can hold firmly within this range, the market will accelerate directly, aiming for 70077—an area that was once strong support but has now become a critical resistance. Breaking through 70077 would then target 70966 or even higher.

Conversely, if the breakout fails, a retest of 67234 is expected. A break below this support would cause the price to re-enter the flag pattern's internal oscillation. However, as long as the strong support below 65611 holds, the upward trend remains intact. For those looking to position on the left side, consider entering small long positions near the retest of 65611, with strict stop-losses. If it falls below 65000, exit immediately to lock in profits—never go against the trend.

Regarding the bullish engulfing pattern in the chart, although it indicates a bullish signal, its position is poor, appearing below the resistance at 67234. Moreover, volume did not support the pattern after it formed, making this signal unreliable. If it were me, I would definitely avoid going long here—similar bullish engulfing patterns above resistance tend to be more reliable. Even if you are already in, you should take quick profits and exit, avoiding high expectations.

$BTC Operation: On the hourly chart, a volume-supported break above 68112 signals a right-side long entry; if 67446 is broken with volume and the rebound fails to recover, decisively go short with a proper stop-loss. On the 4-hour chart, if it falls below 67296, target 66492-65267 below.

On the daily chart, another important point is that the previous large bullish candle's low at 68214 has been broken. Tomorrow morning's daily close is crucial. If it can close back above 68214, there could be another rebound, likely testing the high of 71856. If it cannot close above, all previous rebound expectations will be invalidated.