🚨💥 BTC Cycle Context 💥🚨

Several on-chain indicators now point to the market moving deeper into a late-cycle stress phase.

Capitulation pressure is building as loss supply pushes back above 40%, while short-term holder behavior continues to weaken.

At the same time, the Exchange Whale Ratio is rising again, showing that large players are becoming more active as price struggles.

Liquidity conditions also remain defensive.

The Coinbase Premium Index stays negative for extended periods, and stablecoin flows show capital moving onto exchanges without turning into sustained spot BTC buying.

The supply side is tightening as well.

Age Concentration (HHI) is rising while Age Distribution entropy is falling. In simple terms, coins are moving less and becoming more concentrated in older age bands - a sign that supply is starting to lock up.

Taken together, these signals describe a market structure commonly seen during late-cycle stress phases.

Market stress is rising, weaker hands are under pressure, and stronger participants are becoming more active.

Still, the market has not fully reset.

Metrics such as MVRV and capitulation intensity remain above the levels typically seen at major cycle bottoms.

What we may be seeing instead is the early stage of a transition - where weaker holders capitulate while stronger hands begin positioning.

Markets rarely bottom when conditions look comfortable. They tend to bottom when stress is high and stronger hands start absorbing supply
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