Why do prices always surge before a crash? Let's clarify this once and for all.

The following three charts show bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022. There is over a 90% probability that before a crash, the market will surge to lure in buyers and offload holdings before falling again.

The core reasons are as follows:
1. Major players/Institutions/Big Traders induce a final surge at high levels to offload holdings
Large funds have accumulated a significant amount of chips at high prices. They want to realize profits. If they sell off directly, it will immediately trigger panic selling and a stampede, making it impossible to sell at good prices.

2. Technical/Emotional Overbought Rebound
The market has been declining for a while → Many traders are out of the market or holding light positions → Slight positive news triggers a revenge rally + bottom-fishing entries → Forms a brief but fierce V-shaped rebound.
However, because the fundamentals/liquidity/big trend haven't truly reversed → the rebound hits resistance levels, profit-taking + previously trapped positions sell off aggressively → prices continue to hit new lows.

3. Short Covering + Short Squeeze followed by a Reversal
A large number of short positions → Slight price increase triggers stop-loss/additional margin calls → Creates a waterfall of forced short covering buy orders → Prices surge temporarily.
But this buying is "forced," not genuine bullishness → Once short covering is complete, the real selling pressure (deteriorating fundamentals) reasserts dominance → Prices reverse and plummet.
This "last surge" has appeared before the March 2020 US stock market circuit breaker, and before multiple flash crashes in the crypto market in 2022.

4. Illusion caused by Liquidity / Algorithms / Options Gamma Squeeze:
Common in US stocks: large put options → Market makers hedge by buying stocks → Prices rise → More Gamma positive feedback → Accelerated rise → But after expiration, hedging demand disappears → Sharp decline.
This isn't "market manipulation," but a byproduct of derivatives mechanisms. Nonetheless, it looks very much like a fake rally.

In summary, the most common logic is:
Large funds want to exit fully at high levels → Someone must take the other side at higher prices → So they create a false appearance of "continued big rise" → Lure the most optimistic traders in → Offload holdings and run → No one to continue the rally → Crash.
This isn't a "market conspiracy," but an inevitable result of profit-seeking instincts + information asymmetry + herd mentality.

Only December 2018 was somewhat special; the market moved sideways for 9 months without breaking support, and if it hadn't broken here, leveraged bulls would have to be liquidated, or the major players and institutions would be working for the market giants.