#美伊局势影响

The US and Israel launched the Epic Fury military operation against Iran, with thick smoke billowing over Tehran. This geopolitical shockwave has quickly reshaped the global asset logic. Despite the turmoil, BTC has shown remarkable resilience, once recovering to the $70,000 level. This reflects that when traditional financial systems are hindered, funds view BTC as digital gold and a tool for cross-border asset transfer. However, since global liquidity remains tight through 2026, the $70,000 level is more of a psychological sentiment zone. If the conflict does not subside quickly, high volatility will still pose a risk.

Gold, crude oil, and $BTC are the three major assets competing—who is the most risk-resistant? Gold is the absolute safe haven king. Gold prices have doubled compared to the same period last year, supported by central bank reserves and ultimate defensive sentiment, remaining the top choice. Crude oil is a pure supply hedge. As the risk of the Hormuz Strait blockade increases, Brent crude oil is approaching $90, highly aggressive but also accompanied by high retracement risk. $BTC has a decentralized narrative, but its susceptibility to inflation expectations and interest rate paths still exists.

The escalation of conflict is transmitting to CPI through energy prices. Every $10 increase in oil prices will cause inflation expectations to jump. Currently, the market predicts that the Federal Reserve’s multiple rate cuts originally scheduled for 2026 may be delayed until September or even later. This high inflation + high interest rate expectation will serve as a tightening constraint on subsequent risk asset rebounds.