TC Energy Reports Record Operational Performance on Path to Enhanced Growth: 2026 Outlook Strengthens $6B Capital Deployment Strategy

TC Energy delivered exceptional results for 2025, combining its strongest safety record in five years with unprecedented operational achievements across North American energy infrastructure. The company’s portfolio of natural gas pipelines and power assets generated 15 delivery records throughout the year, while financial metrics demonstrated resilience against geopolitical headwinds. With comparable EBITDA rising 9% year-over-year to $11.0 billion and segmented earnings remaining stable at $8.0 billion, the Calgary-based infrastructure leader is poised to accelerate capital deployment across a diversifying set of high-quality opportunities emerging from surging power demand and LNG export growth.

Safety Excellence Translates to Operational Records and Financial Strength

The company’s unwavering commitment to safety culture produced tangible results across its operations. In the fourth quarter of 2025, comparable EBITDA surged 13% to $3.0 billion, while segmented earnings climbed 15% to $2.2 billion compared to the same period in 2024. These gains directly correlate with operational excellence: Canadian Natural Gas Pipeline deliveries averaged 27.2 Bcf/d, climbing 5% quarter-over-quarter and reaching an all-time record of 33.2 Bcf on January 22, 2026. The U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines system achieved even more dramatic momentum, averaging 29.6 Bcf/d—up 9.5% from the prior quarter—with an extraordinary peak delivery of 39.9 Bcf on January 29, 2026. LNG-bound deliveries surged 21% to average 3.9 Bcf/d, reflecting North America’s accelerating liquefied natural gas export trajectory.

With 98% of comparable EBITDA underpinned by regulated rates or long-term take-or-pay contracts, TC Energy maintained limited commodity exposure while capturing the full benefit of rising infrastructure utilization. This structural advantage insulates cash flows from volatile energy markets, providing investors with stable, predictable returns characteristic of utility-grade infrastructure.

Data Centre Boom and Power Transition Unlock Growth Opportunities

The surging demand for electrical capacity from data centre proliferation and coal-to-gas conversions is reshaping North American infrastructure requirements. On January 9, 2026, TC Energy successfully closed a non-binding expansion open season on its Columbia Gas Transmission system targeting 0.5 Bcf/d of incremental capacity to serve the Columbus, Ohio area and New Albany market. The response dramatically exceeded expectations: approximately 1.5 Bcf/d of bids—three times the proposed project size—underscored the intensity of power-driven demand. Building on this momentum, on February 9, 2026, the company launched a second expansion open season on its Crossroads Pipeline system for up to 1.5 Bcf/d of capacity targeting Northern Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, and South Dakota markets, with closure expected in mid-March 2026.

These initiatives reflect a broader transformation: TC Energy anticipates North American natural gas demand will expand by approximately 45 Bcf/d through 2035, reaching roughly 170 Bcf/d driven by LNG exports, rising power generation, and enhanced reliability requirements from local distribution networks.

Strategic Capital Allocation and Project Execution Excellence

In 2025, TC Energy successfully placed $8.3 billion of projects into service—over 15% under budget—exemplifying disciplined project management. Key completions included the VR project on the Columbia system (approximately US$0.5 billion), providing incremental Virginia-to-Norfolk capacity, and the WR project on the ANR system in Wisconsin (approximately US$0.7 billion), expanding mainline delivery flexibility. Looking ahead, the company expects to deploy approximately $4 billion of capital in 2026, including the Bison XPress Project on Northern Border Pipeline and Bruce Power Unit 3 enhancements as part of its MCR program.

For the full decade through 2030, management is confident in fully allocating $6 billion of net annual capital expenditures, with visibility to potentially exceed this level in subsequent years. The company targets build multiples—a measure of capital efficiency calculated by dividing expenditures by comparable EBITDA—between 5-7x, balancing growth deployment with financial discipline.

During the fourth quarter, TC Energy sanctioned $0.6 billion of in-corridor expansion projects, including $0.5 billion in Multi-Year Growth Plan (MYGP) expansion facilities on the NGTL System with expected 2028 in-service dates. As of December 31, 2025, approximately $1.1 billion of MYGP facilities had received final investment decision approval.

Dividend Growth Affirms Commitment to Shareholder Returns

The company’s Board of Directors approved a 3.2% increase in the quarterly common share dividend, raising the distribution to $0.8775 per share for Q1 2026 (equivalent to $3.51 on an annualized basis). This marks the 26th consecutive year of dividend increases, reflecting management confidence in sustained cash generation and capital flexibility. The annualized dividend of $3.51 per share represents a meaningful income component for yield-oriented investors, supported by the company’s highly contracted revenue base.

Financial Framework Positioned for Sustained Value Creation

TC Energy’s financial discipline remains evident across all metrics. For full-year 2025, comparable earnings per common share totaled $3.51 compared to $3.73 in 2024, reflecting the normalization of certain one-time adjustments from the prior year. However, when measured in absolute terms, comparable EBITDA growth of 9% demonstrates the underlying momentum in asset utilization and rate recovery.

The 2026 outlook projects comparable EBITDA in the range of $11.6 to $11.8 billion, representing continued mid-single-digit growth. Capital expenditures are anticipated between $6.0-$6.5 billion (or $5.5-$6.0 billion net of non-controlling interests), positioning the company to execute its identified portfolio while maintaining a debt-to-EBITDA ratio aligned with long-term targets.

Strategic Positioning in North American Energy Infrastructure

As North America transitions toward lower-carbon natural gas and accelerates power generation capacity to support digital infrastructure and manufacturing reliability, TC Energy has positioned itself at the intersection of multiple structural growth drivers. The company’s diversified asset base—spanning Canada, the United States, and Mexico—provides exposure to LNG export growth, data centre power demands, and coal-to-gas conversions.

Management’s emphasis on disciplined capital allocation, safety-driven operational excellence, and consistent project execution creates a differentiated value proposition. With 15 operational records achieved in 2025 and a clear pathway to deploy $6 billion annually through 2030, TC Energy is well-positioned to deliver the low-risk, repeatable performance that institutional investors seek in North American infrastructure.