This cycle of the bear market is still following the same pattern as previous ones, mainly seeing a correction of 70%-75%.

How low can Bitcoin go?
The black line in the chart below represents Bitcoin's price, while the yellow line shows the average network cost.
The calculation is based on the price at which each Bitcoin last moved on-chain. The current average cost is 54,785, with long-term holders averaging around 41,000, and short-term holders averaging about 89,000. So even if panic hits a new all-time low of 5, the market is crying out loud, but Bitcoin's current price is still above the network's average cost.

In the deep bear markets of 2022, Bitcoin bottomed at 15,000, with an average cost of 20,000. In 2019, during a deep bear, Bitcoin hit a low of 3,100, with an average cost of 4,600. In these two extreme cases, Bitcoin's price was about 70% of the average cost.

Therefore, theoretically, further declines would mean that the 54,785 figure is really the limit. If the heavens decide to be ruthless and push everyone to the brink, then 75% of the average cost price would be 38,349.

Bottom-fishing strategies should be tailored to your own situation. Regardless, always treat any FOMO in this market as free money. #当前行情抄底还是观望？ #深度创作营