#比特币反弹 Key Resistance Levels Fully Recovered, Road to Reversal Still Facing Tests

Today’s rebound successfully reclaimed the $68,000 psychological level, but does this mean a reversal has begun? Further observation of the breakthrough of key resistance is still needed.
Technical Analysis: Successfully reclaiming $68,000, with the next resistance at $70,000. On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin broke through the past week’s consolidation range with a strong volume long bullish candle, indicating a significant technical recovery.
● Key Resistance Level Reclaimed: $68,000 has been an important resistance since mid-February. Today’s volume breakout is highly symbolic. From the daily chart, Bitcoin has now risen above the 20-day moving average for the first time since February 6, indicating a short-term trend reversal. ● Next Resistance at $70,000: In the short term, the rebound faces its first psychological test — the $70,000 round number. This level is not only a psychological barrier but also the high point area from February 16, where a large number of trapped positions are clustered. If Bitcoin can return to $70,000, it will help shift market sentiment toward a more positive direction.
● Support Levels Shifted Up to $66,500: With the rebound established, short-term support has moved up from $65,000 to around $66,500. If the price retraces to this level and holds, the rebound structure is likely to be maintained; if it falls below again, watch out for the risk of a double bottom.
● Technical Indicators Fully Strengthening: RSI has recovered from oversold territory below 30 to around 55, with momentum significantly restored; MACD fast and slow lines have formed a golden cross at low levels, and the bullish momentum histogram is beginning to expand. Trading volume has increased noticeably compared to previous days, indicating inflow of additional funds.
● ETH/BTC Exchange Rate Stabilizes and Rebounds: Ethereum against Bitcoin has risen from around 0.0285 to 0.0303, breaking the 0.03 round number. This is an important signal — funds are rotating from Bitcoin into Ethereum, often indicating a deepening market trend.

Market Outlook and Strategy: Rebound Confirmed but Not Reversed, Cautiously Optimistic with Focus on Timing
Today’s rebound is a vigorous correction of previous excessive pessimism, with clear bottom signals emerging technically. However, given that the overall market structure has not fully reversed, a “cautiously optimistic” approach is advised. In the short term, the market is entering a “key resistance testing” phase, with bulls and bears competing fiercely around $70,000 and $2,150.
● Core Observation Range Raised to $67,500 - $70,500. Focus on the breakthrough of the $70,000 round number. If volume can stabilize above $70,000, short-term space opens up, potentially challenging $72,000-$73,000; if resistance is encountered and prices fall back, pay attention to the support at $67,500.
● Core Strategy and Recommendations:
1. Rebound Confirmed but Not Reversal, Moderate Positioning: The current rise has moved beyond purely short covering driven by bearish liquidation. Multiple signals such as positive funding rates, increased volume, and strong individual stocks confirm the rebound’s validity. Positions can be increased from light to neutral (e.g., 20%-30% of total funds), but full positions chasing highs are not recommended. 2. Key Level Battles, Set Proper Stop-Loss and Take-Profit: For investors already in the market, consider setting partial take-profit near $70,000 to lock in gains; for those not yet in, consider entering lightly on a pullback to support at $67,500, with stop-loss below this level. 3. Focus on Right-Side Confirmation Signals, Not Guessing Tops on the Left: It’s important to recognize that a single bullish candle does not equal a trend reversal. We are still in a rebound phase after a bear market structure; a true trend reversal requires more confirmation signals — such as weekly close above $70,000 or a bottoming pattern on the daily chart.
Wintermute OTC Trading Head Jake Ostrovskis reminds that unless Bitcoin reclaims $75,000, “it’s hard to see many taking this rebound seriously.”
4. Watch for Capital Flows and Key Data: Whether the rebound can sustain depends on whether trading volume remains expanded and whether Bitcoin ETF fund flows shift from outflows to inflows — a “weather vane” for institutional confidence recovery. Also, pay attention to NVIDIA’s earnings report tonight, which serves as an important “thermometer” for AI market sentiment; its performance and guidance could influence cross-market risk appetite.