Bitcoin Daily Report #何时是最佳入场时机

As the February 27 Bitcoin options expiration approaches, the $40,000 strike price put options have become the market focus, with nearly $500 million in volume. This indicates that the market is simultaneously strengthening risk hedging while betting on a potential rebound after volatility eases. There are also orders adding to tail risk put options, which are viewed as deep tail risk hedges, suggesting that investors' demand for downside protection is heating up and preparations are being made for extreme bearish scenarios.

The market is not purely bearish but has entered a phase of cautious optimism combined with defensive hedging. In other words, investors are maintaining bullish positions for potential rebounds while also increasing downside insurance, indicating a more complex stage. Macro variables include the possibility that hawkish candidate Wosh's election could slow the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts and tighten liquidity, putting pressure on Bitcoin.

The large volume of low-strike put options indicates increased tail risk hedging, but the bullish/bearish ratio remains above 1, suggesting the market has not shifted to extreme pessimism overall. The expiration of options this month could serve as an important catalyst for short-term volatility. The market is watching whether the $40,000 put options will serve as insurance or become a sign of an impending stress test.