On February 18th, renowned analyst Willy Woo stated that I want to deliver bad news to those who are always bullish on a bull market: Bitcoin's bear market trend is still ongoing and should be divided into three stages:

Stage One — The Beginning: At this point, Bitcoin liquidity has already collapsed, which occurred in Q3 2025, and prices have started to decline. Bitcoin, as a small-scale asset, is extremely sensitive to liquidity. For this reason, it often leads the global macroeconomy into a bear market, usually months in advance. In other words, when smart money withdraws, Bitcoin reacts quickly. In this stage, die-hard bulls will blindly claim this is just a correction within a bull market, but they cannot provide concrete evidence of capital inflows and will only make up stories.

Stage Two — Global stock markets turn bearish: This is a massive entity worth up to $100 trillion, like a giant supertanker — moving slowly. This is the mid-stage of Bitcoin's bear market, where all risk assets are declining. Undoubtedly, we are in a bear market.

Stage Three — Dawn of Hope: In this stage, liquidity begins to improve, capital outflows peak and stabilize. Investors are returning. The final price crash usually occurs in this stage, possibly shortly before or after the capital outflow peak.

Within the current bear market framework, Bitcoin is currently in Stage One and is about to enter Stage Two. #币圈生存指南