- Current situation: CPI has eased but stickiness remains, employment exceeds expectations, and the Federal Reserve is thoroughly divided (cutting rates / pausing / raising rates three factions).

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- Market pricing: Probability of rate cuts in March is about 10%, barely over half by June; short-term rate cuts are unlikely.
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- Crypto market logic:
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- High interest rates + tightening liquidity expectations → bearish pressure on high-volatility assets.
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- But funds haven't moved out, just observing: waiting for signals of a "true data collapse" or a clear turning point like "rate cut confirmation."
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- Now is the "expectation game" period: neither a sharp crash nor a big rally, but repeated oscillations and shakeouts.

📈 How will this wave go: drop sharply then rebound, or just push up directly?

Conclusion: drop sharply first, then rebound; it won't push up directly.

1. Why it won't push up directly

- The Federal Reserve hasn't signaled clear easing; the minutes even mention "not ruling out rate hikes," which dampens bullish sentiment.
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- The crypto market currently lacks incremental funds; in a stock of existing funds game, attempts to push prices up are easily crushed and hard to sustain.
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- BTC/ETH/SOL are all below key resistance levels (BTC≈67,000, ETH≈2,020, SOL≈85); without breaking through, upward movement is limited.
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- Your idea of a "pace reversal": no real data collapse, and the rationale for liquidity injection is invalid; pushing up would just be a trap for late buyers.

2. Why it will drop through

- Technical: Major coins are in a downtrend/oscillation at the lower end, with weak rebounds and easy to break support.
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- Liquidity: Under high interest rates, risk appetite declines, and funds prefer waiting for lower prices.
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- Sentiment: After the minutes, panic and caution dominate; major players may use the opportunity to dump and shake out weak hands to get cheap chips.
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- Target range (most probable): $BTC ‌#Gate广场发帖领五万美金红包 #何时是最佳入场时机
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- BTC: 65,000–66,000
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- ETH: 1,900–1,950
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- SOL: 78–80

3. How to rebound after breaking through

- After hitting bottom, all negative factors are exhausted, and funds start rushing to price in "future rate cuts."
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- If employment/inflation weaken later, rate cut expectations will reignite, leading to a sustained rebound.
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- The rebound is not a reversal: first watch resistance levels (BTC≈67,000, ETH≈2,000, SOL≈83); only breakouts above these levels indicate further gains.