##比特币跌幅逼近历史极值 Bitcoin's Bear Market Resistance Zone

Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline since January. In midterm election years in the U.S., Bitcoin often encounters resistance within a certain zone.
This zone is essentially a combination of the 20-week simple moving average and the 21-week exponential moving average. Sometimes Bitcoin breaks through this zone and uses it as support, at which point it shifts from a resistance zone to a support zone.

Recently, these candlesticks remind us of the situation in 2022. Looking at where Bitcoin broke previous lows then and where it broke now, you can see that initially there was a long lower shadow, breaking below the previous support level. Now, this scene is happening again. If we compare the differences, this time might be more bearish because we haven't even closed the weekly candle back above that level as we did last time. Back then, after the long lower shadow, the weekly close was above that level.
After the long lower shadow in 2022, Bitcoin only experienced a slow, slight decline over the next two weeks. A week later, there was a sharp rise followed by a spike top. This aligns with the view that Bitcoin might be forming a local top in early March.
If you simply review different years, you'll find that Bitcoin often hits a low in February and then reaches a local high in the first week of March. This has happened many times. Sometimes the February low occurs early in the month, other times a bit later, in late February. Then, a rebound occurs into early March.