Short-term bias is bearish, medium-term is volatile and weak, long-term remains bullish but requires confirmation signals

II. Short-term (1-3 days): Mainly bearish

- ✅ Reasons for bearishness

- Break below the 2000 key level, daily chart shows a bearish arrangement, rebound is weak

- Capital flow: ETF net outflows for 4 consecutive weeks, 30-day funds remain negative

- Sentiment: Extreme panic, derivatives favoring the short side (94%)

- Holiday liquidity is poor, prone to quick rises and falls

- ✅ Long positions are only suitable for oversold rebounds (light positions)

- Support: 1900–1930, RSI approaching oversold with room for recovery

- Only suitable for quick in and out trades, do not chase longs

III. Medium-term (1-4 weeks): Volatile downward trend

- Major cycle downtrend structure not broken, highs are continuously decreasing

- Resistance: 2000→2040; Support: 1930→1900→1890

- Strategy: Focus on shorting at high levels, add low positions as support, strictly control position size and stop-loss

IV. Long-term (6-12 months): Bullish logic still valid

- Technical: Pectra upgrade, ZK-EVM, re-staking implementation

- Institutions: Staking ETF with yield-generating properties, long-term allocation demand

- Supply: Staking + re-staking + L2 locking, circulating supply shrinking

V. Key operational references (short-term)

- Short: Enter at 1995–2025, target 1950→1930→1900, stop-loss at 2040

- Long: Light positions at 1910–1930, target 1960→1990, stop-loss at 1890