February Macroeconomic Calendar: Key Labor Market and Financial Policy Events Shaping the Direction of the Crypto Market

The second week of February 2026 will become a critical period for cryptocurrency investors. During this timeframe (February 2–6), there will be concentrated releases of significant macroeconomic data from the US and decisions from leading central banks worldwide. These events have the potential to drastically impact Bitcoin’s volatility and other digital economy assets through mechanisms such as dollar strengthening and tightening liquidity conditions in financial markets.

An important factor that has shifted analysts’ expectations: the US Department of Labor announced the suspension of the release of its key labor market report scheduled for Friday, February 6, due to the partial government shutdown that began on January 31. This means one of the most volatile trading days of the week will lose its main catalyst.

February 2: Signals of Accelerating US Economy

US manufacturing sector data came out with a positive surprise even before the full trading week began. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.6 against an expected 48.5, and new orders reached 57.1. Employment in manufacturing also improved, indicating an acceleration in economic activity despite expectations of slowdown.

For the crypto market, such data tend to send a more negative signal. Strengthening US economic indicators reduce the likelihood of imminent monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, meaning interest rates will stay elevated longer. Rising Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar create unfavorable conditions for Bitcoin, which traditionally reacts to such scenarios with downward pressure on its price. The Producer Price Index remained nearly in line with expectations at 59.0, adding no surprises on the inflation front.

February 3–4: Focus on US Labor Market and Eurozone

Tuesday, February 3, begins with a speech by Federal Reserve Board member Bowman (16:40 Kyiv time), but the main focus will be on the release of the JOLTS report — the number of open job vacancies in the US labor market for December (17:00 Kyiv time). This indicator is critically important for assessing overheating in the labor market and influences the Fed’s decisions regarding future rate policy.

Wednesday, February 4, promises to be the day with the highest concentration of economic events. At 12:00 Kyiv time, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (monthly and annual changes for January), including the core index, will be released. These data are significant because of the euro’s role in calculating the global US dollar index (DXY).

At 15:15, ADP will publish its report on changes in non-farm employment for January — a preliminary indicator ahead of the official Labor Department data. At 16:45, the Services PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index for services in January) will be released, followed at 17:00 by the broader ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, including employment and price components. Both indicators are critically important for assessing recession risks in the US economy.

February 5: Monetary Decisions from the Two Largest Central Banks

Thursday becomes the day of key interest rate decisions. At 14:00 Kyiv time, the Bank of England will announce its decision, accompanied by the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting. A few minutes later, at 15:15, the European Central Bank will publish its decision along with a statement on monetary policy. Both news releases directly influence the pound sterling and euro exchange rates, which are part of the DXY index.

The key data block comes at 15:30 — the so-called US labor market data dump: initial unemployment claims for the week and the total number of claimants. These weekly indicators serve as signals of the labor market’s health and significantly impact short-term financial asset movements.

Following that, at 15:45, the ECB President will hold a press conference explaining the decision, and at 17:15, ECB President Lagarde will give a separate speech. At 17:50, Federal Reserve member Bostick will speak.

At the end of Thursday, at 23:30 Kyiv time, the Federal Reserve will release its balance sheet report — data on the central bank’s assets and liabilities, reflecting the scale of monetary issuance and overall liquidity in the financial system.

February 6: Friday Without Major Events

The last day of the week will be relatively calmer due to the absence of the US employment report. In the morning at 09:00 Kyiv time, the Swedish Riksbank will release its Consumer Price Index — an important indicator since the Swedish krona is included in the dollar index calculation.

Instead of the expected large US labor market data dump at 16:30 (which usually includes average hourly earnings, employment change in non-farm sectors, unemployment rate, and labor force participation rate), investors will receive only forecasts from the University of Michigan for February — expected inflation and consumer sentiment indices.

Why All This Matters for Cryptocurrencies

The direct link between macroeconomic data and the crypto market operates through several channels. First, US economic strengthening and rising real interest rates reduce the attractiveness of risky assets, including Bitcoin. Second, the movement of the dollar index correlates inversely with crypto prices — a stronger dollar typically exerts downward pressure on BTC.

Third, central bank decisions on interest rates determine overall liquidity conditions. When rates remain high, market conditions tighten, and demand for alternative assets declines. Finally, labor market data serve as signals of economic health and recession risk — scenarios where investors often seek refuge in traditional assets, temporarily negatively impacting crypto.

Upcoming week’s events will shape a trading landscape with increased volatility. Analysts and traders should pay close attention to Fed speeches and labor market data — these events usually generate the largest short-term price movements for Bitcoin.