QCP Capital: This Bear Market Feels More Like a Liquidity Reset Than a Structural Collapse

On February 12, Elbert Iswara, Head of Client Coverage at QCP Capital, stated during a podcast that this bear market feels more like a liquidity reset rather than a structural collapse. Elbert described the current volatility as a sharp but not uncommon correction in history, with the rebound around $60,000 indicating that underlying demand still exists, especially from long-term holders and institutions.

Elbert believes that the market direction is primarily driven by broader risk aversion sentiment, including liquidity tightening and changing interest rate expectations. Meanwhile, crypto-specific factors such as ETF fund outflows, derivatives position adjustments, and leverage liquidations have amplified this wave of volatility, making it faster and more intense.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading as a risk asset sensitive to liquidity, especially during tightening or stress cycles. Elbert pointed out that this does not negate its narrative as a store of value, but it does mean investors should not expect it to hedge in every sell-off. Bitcoin remains a hybrid asset, with its role shifting according to macro cycles.

Elbert emphasized that, beyond the narratives, several short-term indicators are more important:

· Key price levels and positions: The $60,000 - $65,000 range remains a significant psychological and technical zone, with thin liquidity potentially amplifying overcorrection risks.
· ETF fund flow sustainability: Whether outflows continue or stabilize will influence short-term price behavior, especially in choppy markets.
· Leverage and liquidations: Rapid unwinding of crowded positions often magnifies sharp movements.
· Correlation patterns: Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks tends to increase during risk aversion periods and recede once macro pressures ease. The key is the speed of this reversion.

Elbert stated that in the short term, investors should view Bitcoin as a macro-sensitive, high-beta asset and manage risk exposure accordingly. From a long-term perspective, the true drivers of value are adoption rates, market structure maturity, and whether institutional participation can stabilize over cycles. #Gate广场发帖领五万美金红包