Solana Drops to Lowest Level in 2 Years: History Shows Potential for Rebound to $100

Solana has faced heavy pressure in recent trading sessions, dropping to its lowest level in nearly two years. This sharp decline occurred following a general market weakening, pushing SOL below previous support zones.
Although the price has fallen, initial signs of stabilization are emerging. Historical patterns suggest that Solana may be preparing for a recovery, which could eventually bring the price back to $100, or even surpass that level.
Solana Has Experienced Similar Cases Before
On-chain valuation metrics indicate that Solana is severely undervalued. The Market Value to Realized Value ratio has dropped to its lowest in nearly two and a half years. This indicator shows that SOL’s market cap is significantly lower than the total cost of producing the circulating tokens, reflecting widespread unrealized losses among holders.
Such conditions in history often mark late-stage corrections rather than early sell-offs. When the realized value exceeds the market value by this margin, selling pressure usually diminishes. Investors are less inclined to sell at a loss, laying the groundwork for stability. This valuation imbalance supports the view that SOL is trading below its fair value.

Profitability data reinforce this perspective. Currently, only 21.9% of Solana addresses are in profit, meaning about 78.1% of holders are at a loss. This level of difficulty often coincides with market bottoms, as lower prices tend to attract demand from value-oriented participants.
In previous cycles, profits dropping near or below 20% often signaled a significant rebound. Reduced profit-taking limits supply, while low prices encourage accumulation. If history repeats itself, Solana could benefit from renewed interest as investors prepare for a recovery from deep discount levels.

SOL Needs to Break Through This Level to Rebound
At the time of writing, Solana is trading around $86, holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This level is often described as a support in a bear market. As long as SOL remains above this, downside risk appears contained, increasing the likelihood of a technical rebound.

The current stability suggests SOL may be forming a bottom. Any recovery will likely depend on improved capital flows. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator shows a slight uptick but remains in negative territory. This change indicates that capital outflows are slowing, an early sign that selling pressure is easing.

A decisive breakout above the $90 level would set Solana on a recovery path toward $100. Confirmation would come if the price surpasses the 61.8% Fibonacci level near $105 to establish it as support. However, if capital inflows do not materialize, this process could reverse. A drop below $81 would put SOL at risk of falling further to $75 or even $70.