XRP Bears Maintain Control: Technical Setup Points to Potential $1.20 Drop

XRP remains locked within a corrective phase across both fiat and Bitcoin pairs, with recent recovery momentum fading against established resistance and key moving average filters. As of mid-February 2026, XRP trades at $1.42—up 9.71% in the past 24 hours—yet this short-term bounce masks a broader bearish structure that continues to challenge bulls at every rally attempt. The critical question facing traders: Is this latest rebound merely another short-covering spike within a larger downtrend, or the foundation for a more sustainable recovery? Current technicals suggest the bear case remains dominant.

USDT Trading Pair: Bear Pressure Intensifies at $1.42

On the daily timeframe, XRP/USDT has retreated to $1.42 after failing decisively at the $2.40 supply barrier and the sloping 100-day and 200-day moving averages that continue confirming medium-term bearish bias. The horizontal demand zone spanning $1.80–$1.90 once provided temporary floor support, but price action now trades decisively below this level, signaling bear control has intensified.

The daily RSI, which briefly approached overbought during January’s short-covering rally, has already cooled back to neutral readings—a telltale sign the bounce lacked conviction. For bulls to construct a meaningful reversal, they must first reclaim the $2.20–$2.40 band as the immediate resistance threshold. Failure to reach these levels keeps the structural setup bearish.

On the downside, the $1.60 capitulation lows from October represent the next technical floor. Should this level break, a drop toward the higher-timeframe demand zone near $1.20–$1.30 becomes highly probable. Many traders view this lower band as where a more durable base could form, but with the decline in momentum and price structure, the path of least resistance points lower. A decisive daily close below $1.80 would effectively confirm bears remain in full control and open the door to that $1.20 target zone.

XRP/BTC Pair: Downtrend Persistence and Drop Risk

Against Bitcoin, XRP’s relative performance tells an equally bearish story. The XRP/BTC pair currently hovers around 2,100–2,200 sats after a sharp rejection from the 2,400 sats resistance cluster that aligns with both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. This pattern has repeated multiple times throughout the downtrend: each rally into the 2,400–2,500 sats zone is promptly sold, and momentum consistently fails to establish higher highs.

The structural downtrend remains intact, with lower support forming around 1,900–2,000 sats—a zone where recent wicks show some demand interest but insufficient strength to reverse the broader bear bias. Until daily closes definitively reclaim at least the 2,400–2,500 sats region along with key moving average resistance, relative Bitcoin strength continues to outperform XRP.

A breakdown below 1,800 sats would confirm renewed underperformance versus Bitcoin and could extend the decline toward the prior major demand area near 1,500 sats. Such a drop would signal accelerating weakness in XRP relative value and suggest the bear trend has fresh momentum to push lower. With current technicals offering limited evidence of trend reversal, traders should remain cautious until more constructive price structures emerge above key resistance zones.