From all the charts, including BTC, BTCSPX, and BTCDXY, we can see that these indices are approaching or trading within the bearish retest zone, which is the first test for potential new trends for BTC and all other indices. I will consider these retests as bearish retests until proven otherwise, and weekly charts may show lower highs. BTC/DXY remains interesting because DXY is still in a macro range low, and if DXY manages to reclaim the 100 level this year, the index could drop significantly. For BTCSPX, the macro trend remains negative. Outperforming SPX over the past few days does not change this. Speaking of SPX, the index itself has not experienced a significant decline, although recent signals have been weak.

One of the biggest macro concerns facing cryptocurrencies this year is that BTC has fallen 40% from recent highs, while SPX is trading near new highs, and DXY remains weak. If SPX begins to show some weakness this year, a normal decline of 5% to 10% will eventually add extra selling pressure on cryptocurrencies, especially since BTC/SPX is still in a macro downtrend. Recently, the index completed a bearish retest within our green box, rejected from there, and printed a new local low, continuing its macro downtrend, which could lead to even lower levels. Meanwhile, DXY has reached a macro range low, printing a weekly bullish divergence, while EURUSD has reached a macro range high, printing a 2-week bearish divergence. These two indices are preparing for a macro reversal this year. Despite the dollar's weakness, BTC/DXY is already in a macro downtrend, and if DXY shows strength, this trend could accelerate rapidly. During periods when the dollar outperforms global currencies, especially the euro, speculative assets tend to perform poorly. This has been observed recently on a small scale, with precious metals peaking locally after a positive reaction from DXY at its macro range low.