The morning options rule will strengthen the influence of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs on the market

The overnight trading period brought important news for the cryptocurrency market. Against the backdrop of the evolution of digital assets from a speculative “wild west” to a professional infrastructure, changes in the morning options trading rule promise to significantly strengthen the positions of spot ETFs. Nasdaq’s decision to lift the restriction of 25,000 contracts per participant, which took effect this week, will be a turning point for the development of derivatives based on American Bitcoin and Ethereum funds.

How the New Rule Will Transform the Options Market

Historically, the morning trading rule was a tool for controlling position concentration. With its relaxation, large institutional investors will have the opportunity to fully hedge their positions in spot ETFs without restrictions. Options allow traders to bet on the future price of an asset with minimal initial costs. Through a small commission, a market participant can lock in the purchase of BTC at a certain price and profit from future growth. Put options work in the opposite direction — as insurance, allowing the sale at the current price if the asset drops sharply.

A particularly illustrative example is BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT). Options on this instrument are already competing with activity on leading centralized exchanges like Deribit. After the restriction is lifted, it could become the absolute leader in the derivatives market. Institutional investors who write (i.e., sell) call options continue to hold ETF shares, earning premiums from selling options while maintaining a bullish exposure. This strategy reduces implied volatility and demonstrates the transition of cryptocurrency into the professional league of traditional finance.

Current State of the Crypto Market and Price Movements

Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency sector has shown mixed results. Bitcoin is trading around $79.12K, down 4.95% for the day. Ethereum retreated more sharply — to $2.44K with an 8.16% decline. Among major assets, only TRX performed well amid the overall decline. Prices of other large assets also show pressure: XRP $1.67, Solana $105.72, BNB $781.50.

The CoinDesk 20 index decreased by 0.57% and is trading at 2,730.84. The overall Ethereum staking yield index fell by 2 basis points to 2.83%. On traditional markets, the US dollar index remains near Tuesday’s low — 98.36. Gold futures increased by 0.20% to $4,923.30, reflecting investors’ search for safe assets amid uncertainty.

Technical Analysis and Historical Parallels

The Bitcoin price chart shows consolidation within a mildly upward channel — a pattern similar to the start of 2022 before a deeper drop to $20,000. History warns: Bitcoin typically enters annual bear markets about 18 months after halving. The last halving event occurred in April 2024, placing us directly in a harsh bear cycle.

ETF Flows and Institutional Activity

Spot BTC ETFs showed a outflow of $32.2 million over the day, but the accumulated net flows remain positive at $56.58 billion. Total BTC holdings in ETFs amount to approximately 1.3 million coins. Spot ETH ETFs show a outflow of $42 million per day with total inflows of $12.37 billion. Total ETH holdings in funds reach 6.04 million tokens.

Key Events and Macro Environment

The morning market rule is shaped by many factors. World Liberty Financial, a company linked to the Trump family, announced a “massive” event in the WLFI ecosystem. Tron DAO Ventures invested $8 million in River — a stablecoin system with chain abstraction aimed at unifying assets and liquidity across blockchains.

On the macroeconomic front, the Responsible Federal Budget Committee warned that rising fiscal debt makes the emergence of some form of crisis inevitable. Geopolitical tensions have increased demand for reserve assets, while activity indicators in the service sector remain under pressure.

Cryptocurrency Stocks and Derivative Instruments

Stocks of crypto sector companies showed mixed dynamics. Coinbase Global closed at $223.14 (–1.67%), Galaxy Digital at $30.92 (–4.71%), RIOT Platforms at $17.08 (–0.99%). CleanSpark rose by 2.97% to $13.19, standing out amid overall pressure. MSTR closed at $160.98 (–1.73%).