The risk is growing quietly: why Bitcoin is gaining risk level before a possible crash

The cryptocurrency market continues to show signs as dangerous as ever, but they unfold so subtly that most participants pass by them unnoticed. Today, BTC is trading at $82.35K, with its all-time high at $126.08K. However, this position on the curve is a critical risk point that quietly approaches each day.

Double Top and Consensus: How to Recognize the Cycle

Chart analysis reveals a clear pattern — Bitcoin experienced a double top before the previous crash, where the rebound lasted about two months, followed by a false breakout that led to a sharp decline. The current situation bears many similar traits.

These cycles repeat every four years. Cryptocurrency consensus is built on this cyclical process, and each time market participants claim that this time will be different. However, the market consistently punishes those who do not adhere to trading discipline. History convincingly proves: forgetting about patterns is the first step toward significant losses.

Asset Divergence as a Signal of Danger

The most alarming indicator develops in the shadows. US stocks continue to rise, precious metals hold their positions, and even alternative assets show resilience. Yet, the crypto industry is unequivocally weakening. Such divergence itself is a formidable warning.

The logic is simple: when global assets grow while cryptocurrencies weaken, it indicates capital outflow from this sector. When US stocks begin to correct, the fall of BTC could significantly exceed most analysts’ expectations. This imbalance remains quietly, without loud announcements, but its impact will be powerful.

Discipline and Tactics: When to Open Short Positions

For those still holding long positions, the only recommendation is — realize profits at higher prices. If there is a retest of the top, it’s an excellent opportunity to add short positions.

The strategy involves a systematic approach. At each resistance level, you can open short positions, gradually accumulating a position. Long trend lines remain long, which does not prevent our short-term operations. The goal is to catch opportunities, not the entire cycle.

Practical Proof: How I Catch Tops

When the price approached $9.8K (assuming this was a previous resistance level), I personally opened short positions totaling $10,000. Two trades were structured as follows: a short-term position was closed with a profit at $9.5K, and a long-term position remained in the portfolio.

Recently, when the price again approached critical levels, I opened short positions on three instruments:

• 0.185 volume on WLFI (World Liberty Financial), current price at $0.15
• 450 units of ZEC (ZCash), trading at $333.30
• A standard position on BTC itself

All three coins were sold at local tops — this is not luck but the result of consistent experience and daily effort. Every day, I find two entry opportunities, enjoying the trading process and stable results.

The main lesson is simple: when the market quietly prepares for a fall, those who maintain discipline and follow their plan have the greatest chances of success.