The whole network plummeted! BTC/ETH smashed simultaneously last night, and the collapse of precious metals led to a chain of bloodshed

Author: Flip the warehouse
A month ago, I warned that the market would face a blockbuster smash this week, last night the global financial market collectively staged a bloody market, gold and silver plummeted in a record, Bitcoin and Ethereum simultaneously followed the decline and dived, which is not an accidental coincidence, but a triple resonance of macro bearishness, technical breakdown, and capital flight, the collective failure of safe-haven assets, the linkage of risk assets to kill, and the decline of the big C wave officially began.

First, the technical side is fully broken, and the K-line pattern sends a clear signal to smash the market

The daily Bollinger Band opening is downward, the MACD short signal continues to be released, and the downward pattern of "lower highs, lower lows" at the weekly level has become a foregone conclusion.
Bitcoin: After the $89,000-$89,900 shock platform was broken in the early stage, $88,000 was directly converted into strong pressure, and last night it fell to $86,035, although it rebounded briefly on the 200-day moving average, but the rebound was immeasurable, and $86,000 became a short-term lifeline, and once it was lost, it would directly fall to the $84,000 mark; The 4-hour Bollinger band opens downward, the step-by-step weak downward pattern is clear, the small cycle has no rebound momentum, and it is only a matter of time before the volume falls.
Ethereum: The trend is weaker than BTC, becoming the leading decline vanguard of this round of smashing, directly below the key support of $2,900 last night, the lowest test is $2,787, and the range of $2,900-2,930 has become a strong pressure band, and the short-term rebound is difficult to break through; $2,800 is the lifeline, and if it falls, it will trigger panic selling, looking down at the low of $2,400. Although there are signs of oversold repair on the hourly line, it is a falling relay, and there is no reversal signal on the technical side.

2. Large-scale capital flight, the crypto market entered the "deleveraging" mode ahead of schedule

The core driving force behind last night's smash was the net outflow of funds that the crypto market had already started, with institutions reducing their positions in advance, retail investors following the trend of selling, and the depletion of funds left the market powerless.
According to the data, 80% of the top ten cryptocurrency contracts have recently shown net outflows, with a net outflow of $4.489 billion in Bitcoin and $4.709 billion in Ethereum, becoming the hardest hit area for capital withdrawal; The funding rate of Ethereum perpetual contracts fell to -0.0011%, and the interest in holding positions fell by 1.48% in 24 hours, and a large number of long orders were liquidated, forming a vicious circle of "closing sell-price falling-re-closing".
At the same time, the US spot BTC/ETH ETF has recently reproduced a large-scale withdrawal of funds, with a total outflow of nearly $1 billion in a single day, and the collective flight of institutional funds directly confirms the general trend of "de-risking" in the market.** Funds vote with their feet, and there is no support for the smashing market**。

Third, precious metals plummeted in record, triggering a chain of bloodshed in global financial markets

Last night, the crypto market crashed, forming a strong linkage with the waterfall of precious metals such as gold and silver, spot gold fell by more than 5% in a single day, silver plummeted by 8%, the largest single-day decline since 2008, the market value of 100 billion yuan evaporated instantly, and safe-haven assets collectively failed, becoming the fuse of global risk asset killing.
The core reason for the collapse of precious metals directly points to the Fed's hawkish signal + regulatory deleveraging + speculative bubble burst: the Fed released a signal to "maintain high interest rates longer", breaking expectations of interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index rebounded to suppress precious metal prices; CME Group raised the margin of silver futures three times, restricting the amount of intraday positions opened in China, high-leverage funds were forced to liquidate, and quantitative trading stop loss signals were triggered; At the beginning of the year, the irrational rise of 20% for gold and 54% for silver accumulated a large number of profit orders, and profit-taking triggered concentrated selling.
As a traditional safe-haven asset, the plunge of precious metals directly triggered the market risk aversion to panic, funds withdrew from all assets, and cryptocurrencies, as high-volatility risk assets, naturally became the hardest hit area for capital flight, forming a linkage effect of "synchronous smashing with precious metals", which is also the core logic of my previous warning - under the macro bearishness, no asset can be alone.

Fourth, the overall bearish resonance, the smashing market is far from over

The simultaneous smash of BTC/ETH and precious metals is not caused by a single factor, but a comprehensive negative resonance of macro policies, market sentiment, capital, and technology, and the follow-up market will still be under pressure, and the depth of the decline of the big C wave far exceeds market expectations.
The Fed's high interest rates and tightening global liquidity have directly suppressed all risk assets; The turmoil in the Japanese bond market and the subsidence of geopolitical risk premiums have made safe-haven assets lose their upward logic; The continuous outflow of funds in the crypto market, the continuous cleaning of leveraged funds, and the lack of rebound momentum in the market; After the technical side is fully broken, the market has formed a unanimous bearish expectation, and panic will further spread.

5. Operational suggestions: Resolutely bearish and do not buy the bottom

Last night's smashing was just the beginning,** The linkage between the crypto market and precious metals will become the norm in the near future**There is no reversal signal in the current market, and all rebounds are inducing long, which is the best time to go short.

1. Bitcoin: The rally is directly short
2. Ethereum: Pressure 2880-2930, rebound to the point, direct short
3. Core principles: do not buy the bottom, do not go long, take advantage of the trend to be bearish, be wary of the market lure to go long and smash the market again, the black swan market may appear at any time.

The market will never live up to rational traders, and the warning of smashing a month ago has been accurately fulfilled, and the subsequent decline of the big C wave will continue to verify the view. Only by revering the market, following the trend, and staying away from the thinking of buying the bottom can we keep the principal in this round of decline and wait for the real layout opportunity!

The big cycle chart I saw last night is basically the same as the trend I posted two weeks ago!

Update the order structure diagram at noon.
#加密市场观察