Last night, friends who stayed up to watch Powell's speech might have had a feeling: has this old guy already started to give up?

Throughout the press conference, half of the questions from reporters were gossip. When will he resign, any advice for his successor, and some even asked about his plans after retirement. Powell was very cooperative, basically going through the motions. The monetary policy remains the same old three: keep the 2% target steady, let the data speak, and avoid preset positions.

The message behind this is quite clear: Powell is already a lame duck.

Even if there are two more meetings, and he continues to serve as a board member, there will be no more press conferences. The market has long shifted its focus to a more critical question: who will take over?

According to CME data, the probability of a rate cut in March has already fallen to zero, and April doesn’t look much better. What is the market waiting for? Waiting for Trump to announce the new chairman candidate.

This is the brutal reality of Wall Street. You think everyone cares about inflation data, but in fact, everyone is betting on the new boss’s policy stance. What Powell says no longer matters; what matters is who Trump will choose.

I originally predicted that if Powell made a hawkish statement today, Trump might immediately announce his successor, giving the market a clear signal. But Powell’s remarks are still relatively mild, and Trump is temporarily holding back.

This delicate balance actually reflects a deeper issue: the independence of the Federal Reserve is being redefined.

Tesla’s earnings fell short of expectations, Meta exceeded expectations, but these are just minor episodes. The real big drama is the race for the Fed chair. The monetary policy inclination of the new chair will directly determine the interest rate trend in the coming years, and thus influence the pricing logic of all risk assets.

The market now is like waiting for the last card in a poker game. Powell’s era is about to end, and new rules of the game are brewing.

Smart investors have already started to position themselves. Are you still watching last night’s data? #内容挖矿焕新公测开启 $BTC $GT $ETH