BTC and ETH options worth $2.7 billion are expiring; the rising skew indicates market signals

According to macro research analysis from Greeks.live, currently BTC is moving around $87,920, and ETH is in the $2,890 range. The upcoming weekly options expiration volume and market volatility indicators suggest an important turning point. In particular, the rise in the skew indicator is interpreted as a key signal reflecting changes in market participants’ sentiment.

This Week’s Options Expiration Volume and Maximum Pain Point

The options expiration volume this week has increased by over 20% compared to last week, reaching approximately $2.7 billion. For BTC, 20,000 contracts are expiring, with a notional value of $2.3 billion. The maximum pain point is set at $92,000, and the Put Call Ratio is 1.39.

ETH has about 120,000 contracts expiring, with a notional value of $430 million. The maximum pain point is near $3,200, and the Put Call Ratio is 1.04. Unlike last week, when the $90,000 and $3,000 levels provided strong support, this week, options are concentrated at higher resistance levels.

Market Signals from Declining Implied Volatility and Rising Skew

Technical indicators in the options market are capturing subtle shifts in market sentiment. While BTC implied volatility (IV) has slightly decreased, the skew has risen. This indicates that the relative price of put options has increased compared to call options, suggesting the market is aware of additional downside risk.

An increasing skew indicates rising protective demand. Currently, the skew pattern suggests institutional investors are strengthening hedges against downside risks. Simultaneously, the decline in IV may imply that market uncertainty has been somewhat alleviated or that consensus on direction has reached a certain level.

Put Call Ratio and Institutional Investors’ Positioning

The fact that all Put Call Ratios are above 1.0 strongly indicates that sell put options are the dominant trading activity in the current market. This suggests market participants expect prices to stay above current levels.

Particularly noteworthy is the accumulation of large sell call options around the $100,000 level. This reflects that institutional investors view $100,000 as a strong resistance and are actively preparing for profit-taking at that level. According to institutional positioning analysis, the current major trading range is set between $92,000 and $100,000.

Range Analysis Between $92,000 and $100,000

Last week, the $90,000 level provided strong support, and this week, BTC’s brief move close to $98,000 reflects an attempt to approach the psychological barrier of $100,000. However, the strong sell call options at the $100,000 level continue to act as a restraining factor on upward movement.

Institutional investors have set the $92,000–$100,000 range as the current key trading zone, reflecting that this range offers sufficient liquidity and trading opportunities. The rising skew indicates increased interest in defending the lower boundary within this box, showing that institutions’ risk management is becoming more sophisticated.

The market is currently built on a solid foundation but still faces constraints on sustained upward momentum. How the market structure will reshape after the $2.7 billion options expiration remains a key focus moving forward.