White soap in the financial market: Lessons from 11 toxins of 2025

The year 2025 reveals sharp truths about the global financial markets—when the white bubble bursts, fans are left not just outside the basin but also exposed to hidden risks lurking in every corner of the system. Confidence that is fragile in various markets, profits generated from cash, and liquidity pressures often turn into “white bubbles” that disappear when market winds return. Through studying 11 key periods of this year, we see clearly how the global economy has allocated resources—why 2025 has both enormous profits and severe losses.

When Political Hope Turns into a White Bubble: The Trump Token Story

When Donald Trump returned to the White House, the crypto market saw a golden opportunity—not in gold but in tokens. Investors flocked to buy “everything related to the Trump brand,” from Meme coins to World Liberty Financial Token (WLFI). This strategy seemed like a successful “bubble”—at least initially.

Within a few months, mysteries began to unravel. On December 23, Trump’s Meme coin plummeted over 80% from its peak. Melania’s Meme coin lost nearly 99%, and shares of American Bitcoin dropped about 80%. History confirms what experts predicted: political confidence cannot sustain assets long-term—even with “supporters” in high positions—showing that confidence is as fragile as a “white bubble” on water’s surface.

Burry vs. Saylor: Who Will Win the Big Bet?

In a perspective comparing faith confessions, Michael Burry—predictor of the 2008 crisis—launched short sales against Nvidia and Palantir Technologies, along with put options at extremely low prices. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor drives digital assets with a “stepwise Bitcoin buying” system.

These bets are not just a game between two individuals but represent “market confidence in AI stocks.” In July, Strategy stocks soared 57% since the start of the year. But as trading saw more competitors and Bitcoin’s price declined from its peak, Strategy’s shares began to lose their premium—another “white bubble” of market confidence starting to crack.

Beyond profits or losses, this paints a picture of a key studio: white bubbles are not caused by biased gaming but by collective belief. When that belief wavers, everything can turn upside down.

European Defense Stocks: Fear Bubble or Power Shortage?

Volatile geopolitics—especially Trump’s plans to reduce support for Ukraine—fostered a scramble for European defense assets. Rheinmetall of Germany surged 150% in 2025, while Italy’s Leonardo increased over 90%.

Asset management firms that previously avoided the “defense industry” due to ESG principles quickly shifted strategies. “The market paradigm has changed,” as Sycomore Asset Management states. When the paradigm shifts, capital flows follow the wind.

However, the risk of this “white defense bubble” is clear: if geopolitical tensions ease or peace treaties are signed, capital outflows could outpace inflows.

“Currency Devaluation Trades”: When Gold and Bitcoin Jump Together

Massive debt burdens in the US, France, and Japan, combined with policymakers’ cautious accounting, pushed many investors into “devaluation hedging assets.” In October, gold and Bitcoin hit record highs simultaneously—an rare period.

Whether driven by fears of currency devaluation or “safe asset exploration,” gold prices rose throughout the year, setting new records repeatedly. For Bitcoin, increased volatility—an unstable “bubble”—attracted investors seeking avoidance.

South Korean Stock Market: Policy Support Bubble

The Kospi index rose over 70% in 2025, thanks to President Lee Jae-myung’s “5,000-point target” policy. Many Wall Street banks joined this confidence, but notable absences were domestic retail investors.

Although Lee Jae-myung was once a retail investor himself, his reform results have yet to convince locals to “hold stocks long-term.” South Korean retail investors are net sellers, pouring over $33 billion into US stocks instead. This is the life of a “policy bubble”: it only succeeds when enough people believe “it’s real.”

Japanese Bonds: From “Major Collapse Catalyst” to “Short Seller’s Paradise”

For years, short sellers of Japanese government bonds suffered losses due to the Bank of Japan’s low-interest-rate policy. In 2025, the situation reversed.

The BOJ’s rate hikes and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s large budget pushed 10-year bond yields above 2% for the first time in over a decade. Bloomberg bond indices fell more than 6%—making it the worst bond market in the world.

This is the “white bubble” of prolonged easing policy: it may help with mortgage debt, but when the time comes, those who sold the “bubble” face the greatest risk.

Lending Market: The Resilient Cockroach Appears

Burry once said, “When you see one cockroach, chances are there are many hiding in the shadows.” 2025 proved this warning with several small crises.

Saks Global restructured $2.2 billion in bonds after paying interest just once. First Brands, Tricolor, and New Fortress Energy all collapsed, wiping out billions in debt. Financial institutions like JPMorgan Chase failed to detect illegal practices such as “collateral stacking.”

This is not just simple fraud overlooked but a standard release by evading norms in the “white bubble” world: investors bet on small borrowers as if for investment, until confidence shatters, and everything collapses.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: The New “Toxic Twins” Come Back to Life

After years under government control, these two companies became targets of new speculation when Trump took office. Investors hoped that “privatization plans” would materialize.

From the start of the year to September’s peak, shares of both soared 367%—making them among the most successful stocks of the year. Even Michael Burry joined the optimistic camp, writing about their potential.

But like all other white bubbles, market confidence still depends on uncertainty: IPO prospects and political changes.

Turkey Carry Trade: When the Bubble Bursts Shaking the World

In 2024, Turkey’s carry trade seemed like a losing bet: bond yields over 40%, and the central bank promising to maintain the currency. Investors borrowed at low rates and bought high-yield assets.

On March 19, 2025, Turkish police detained Istanbul’s opposition mayor. That day, the carry trade collapsed entirely. Since then, the lira depreciated 17% in a year—an example of how “political bubbles,” even reinforced by financial confidence, can still burst.

Final Lesson: The White Bubble of 2025 Financial Markets

2025 is not only about profits and losses but also about a crucial conclusion: the global financial markets have built “white bubbles” in many forms—political beliefs, confidence, money, and policy forecasts.

When advising investors preparing for 2026, Jamie Dimon’s warning rings true: “When you see one cockroach, there are likely many more.” The truth is, confidence itself is a “white bubble” fragile enough to shatter, compounded by ongoing risks and illusions. Each investor must learn that recognizing “cockroaches” (hidden risks) is as vital as creating bubbles themselves.