Bitcoin has a 72% chance of dropping to this price by the end of January, shows Polymarket

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Bitcoin has a 72% chance of falling to this price by the end of January, shows Polymarket Original Link: https://portaldobitcoin.uol.com.br/bitcoin-tem-72-de-possibilidade-de-cair-para-este-preco-ate-o-final-de-janeiro-mostra-polymarket/ Bitcoin has a 72% chance of dropping to $85,000 by the end of January, according to data from the prediction platform Polymarket. The market “What price will Bitcoin reach in January?” already has around $60 million in volume, with $2 million in liquidity, and currently appears as the main bet related to the asset on the site.

The forecast of a drop to $85,000 concentrates a volume of $5.3 million, representing 72% of the probabilities assigned by participants. The “Yes” action is being traded at 73 cents, indicating a potential return of 27 cents per unit if Bitcoin reaches this value within the specified timeframe.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is quoted at $86,406. To reach the level predicted by Polymarket, the asset would need to decline 1.6% over the next seven days. This is a relatively small drop, considering that the last week’s performance already shows a devaluation of 9.5%.

According to Polymarket’s resolution rules, the bet will be settled as winning if Bitcoin hits $85,000 or less at any point in January. The criterion considers the minimum (low) price of 1-minute candles of the BTC/USDT pair on the specific platform, meaning that it is enough for the asset to touch this level — even briefly — for the market to be resolved as “Yes”. If this minimum price is not recorded throughout the entire period, the bet is closed as “No”.

The second-largest forecast within the market points to an even sharper decline, down to $80,000. This possibility accounts for about 13% of the probabilities, with the “Yes” action being traded at approximately 13 cents, reflecting the perception that this scenario is less likely but still relevant among investors.

Next, the market projecting Bitcoin at $75,000 appears with an even lower probability, around 5%. In this case, “Yes” actions cost about 4.9 cents, indicating that participants see a deeper decline as a low-probability event, though not entirely ruled out within the analyzed horizon.

It is important to highlight that Polymarket’s probabilities do not function like a traditional election, where all options must sum to 100%. Each bet is an independent market, with its own question, liquidity, and price formation. This means that different scenarios can, at the same time, present very high probabilities.