#加密市场观察 Bitcoin Crash! It’s no longer recognizable

Once upon a time, Bitcoin was hailed as “digital gold” and “the safe haven asset of the 21st century,” with its supporters claiming that this cryptocurrency, like traditional gold, possesses dual properties of inflation resistance and hedging.
In the early stages of the 2020 pandemic, when Bitcoin and gold rose in tandem, this narrative seemed to be validated by the market. However, over time, Bitcoin’s performance increasingly diverged from its “digital gold” positioning.
This week’s sharp decline in Bitcoin was directly triggered by market panic following the US announcement of digital service taxes on eight European countries. This event should have been a moment for traditional safe haven assets to shine, but instead, Bitcoin became a target of sell-offs.
This highly risk-asset-correlated performance has completely exposed its “safe haven asset” facade. Data shows that Bitcoin’s correlation with tech stocks has reached a historical high, while its correlation with gold has fallen to low or even negative levels.
But calling Bitcoin a risk asset? After Trump announced a pause on the digital service tax on those eight European countries, risk assets like stocks largely recovered their losses, yet cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin did not follow suit. In stark contrast to Bitcoin’s volatility, gold prices have steadily climbed to new all-time highs.
This phenomenon is supported by multiple factors: ongoing global inflation pressures, escalating geopolitical uncertainties, continuous gold purchases by multiple central banks, and investors’ concerns over risks in the traditional financial system.
Initially, Bitcoin holders were mostly long-term believers, but now, the influx of institutional investors, quant funds, and high-frequency traders has greatly changed market dynamics. These participants often adopt investment strategies similar to those in traditional financial markets, making Bitcoin increasingly resemble risk assets like tech stocks.
Similarly, Bitcoin’s price movements have lost their connection to US monetary easing and inflation, while gold still demonstrates its safe haven and inflation-hedging properties. Not only has Bitcoin’s “safe haven asset” halo faded, but the role of traditional safe haven assets like US Treasuries is also subtly changing.
For decades, US Treasuries were regarded as one of the safest assets globally, but amid the continuous expansion of US debt, frequent political deadlocks, and looming default risks, their safe haven properties are being questioned like never before. The long-standing high negative correlation between US Treasuries and gold has now vanished. Since 2024, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by over 170 basis points, yet US Treasury yields remain at historic highs and have not declined. If this trend continues, US Treasuries might soon be sitting at the same table as cryptocurrencies.