We should not be blindly optimistic, but the following views seem to be helpful for bulls@

Cryptocurrency welcomes policy warm winds; has the turning point arrived?

Bitcoin payment bill advances in multiple states, Federal Reserve Chair front-runner's attitude is positive, and market bearish sentiment is quietly shifting—cryptocurrency markets appear to be at the starting point of a new wave of行情.

Early morning crypto news pushes once again fill the screen: Oklahoma submits a bill proposing to allow Bitcoin payments; legislative hearings on crypto market structure will be held next week; Riot Platforms executives openly state that taxing Bitcoin in the US is "unreasonable."
Meanwhile, funding rate data shows that market bearish sentiment towards Bitcoin and SOL has eased. These signals intertwine, outlining the current policy environment and sentiment shift in the cryptocurrency market.

 Policy Tailwind
The policy environment for cryptocurrencies is quietly changing. The latest bill submitted in Oklahoma directly challenges traditional payment systems, marking another US state-level move to open the door for Bitcoin payments after Florida.
This trend is not isolated; it reflects a growing openness at the local level in the US towards cryptocurrencies. Policymakers are beginning to realize that excessive restrictions could drive innovation overseas.
Next week, a key hearing on legislation regarding crypto market structure will be held, with bipartisan lawmakers proposing amendments. This indicates that cryptocurrencies are moving from the regulatory fringe toward mainstream legislation, providing a clearer compliance path for the market.
Although Ukraine's ban on Polymarket appears negative, such events are not uncommon during the early stages of crypto industry development. Crypto-friendly policies are gradually being realized worldwide, as evidenced by adjustments in Bitcoin tax policies in multiple countries.

Tax Barriers
The promotion of Bitcoin payments still faces significant obstacles, most notably tax policies. Strive executives directly state: "The biggest obstacle to Bitcoin payments is tax policy."
Currently, US tax policy requires capital gains tax on Bitcoin transactions, making small daily payments complicated and impractical. Riot Platforms executives point out that Bitcoin is tax-exempt in many countries but faces unreasonable tax burdens in the US.
Adjustments to tax policies could become a key catalyst for the widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies. As more countries and state governments consider policy adjustments, barriers to Bitcoin as a payment method are gradually decreasing.
If the US relaxes its tax policies, it could trigger a series of chain reactions, promoting the practical application of Bitcoin in retail and commercial scenarios, thereby supporting its intrinsic value.

Market Sentiment
Funding rate data reveals subtle changes in market sentiment. Current mainstream CEX and DEX data show that bearish sentiment towards BTC and SOL has eased.
Funding rates are mechanisms in perpetual contract markets used to balance long and short positions. Positive rates indicate dominance by longs, while negative rates show shorts are in control. The current narrowing of negative rates suggests that short pressure is easing.
This shift in market sentiment is not accidental. It resonates with the improving policy environment and reflects growing investor confidence in the outlook for cryptocurrencies.
It is worth noting that this sentiment shift is still in its early stages and has not yet formed a clear bullish consensus, which instead provides a good entry point for prudent investors.

Macro Environment
The macro environment also impacts the cryptocurrency market. Rick Rieder's probability of becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair has risen to 58%, making him the top contender.
This BlackRock global fixed income chief investment officer is seen as a moderate candidate and holds a relatively open attitude towards emerging asset classes. If Rick Rieder indeed takes the helm at the Fed, cryptocurrencies could see a more friendly policy environment.
Federal Reserve policies directly influence global liquidity, which is a key driver of the crypto market. A more accommodative monetary policy environment will benefit risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
It is worth noting that Fed personnel changes are just one of many macro variables. Global geopolitical situations, inflation trends, and economic growth prospects will all influence the medium- and long-term performance of cryptocurrencies.

Market Outlook
Based on current policy trends, tax environment changes, market sentiment adjustments, and macro background, the cryptocurrency market is at a critical turning point.
Gradual clarity in policy provides a more stable development environment; breakthroughs in tax barriers could unlock the potential of Bitcoin payment scenarios; a gentle shift in market sentiment reflects a recovery in investor confidence; macro changes could bring more favorable liquidity conditions.

In the short term, the market may continue to oscillate within the current range, awaiting more clear policy signals. In the medium term, with the advancement of crypto market structure legislation and increased adoption of Bitcoin payments in more regions, cryptocurrencies may experience a new wave of valuation reappraisal.
Investors should focus on key events: the outcome of the crypto market structure legislative hearings, progress on more state-level Bitcoin payment bills, and the final results of Fed personnel changes.
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An interesting detail is that while Oklahoma and Florida promote Bitcoin payment bills, Ukraine has banned the prediction market platform Polymarket on grounds of illegal gambling.
This policy divergence reveals differences in how global regulators perceive cryptocurrencies and also indicates that the future crypto market will zigzag amid these divergences and consensus.
Current funding rates show that bearish sentiment has eased, and the market seems to be accumulating strength for the next wave. Improvements in the regulatory environment and increased institutional acceptance are laying a more solid foundation for the crypto market.
The policy tailwind has begun, tax barriers are loosening, and market sentiment is warming—perhaps the crypto winter is quietly coming to an end.