【ETH Structural Insights | Weak Balance Under Moving Average Convergence】

ETH on the 4-hour chart exhibits a typical consolidation pattern of “moving average convergence and price oscillation.” The price is compressed within a narrow range of $2950-3000, with short-term moving averages MA5 (2977), MA10 (2969), and MA20 (2990) highly converged and flat. This formation indicates that, after the previous decline, the market’s bullish and bearish forces have reached a temporary, fragile equilibrium in this area.

Key Technical Logic and Observation Points

1. Structural Positioning: The price continues to operate below the converged moving averages and is constrained by MA20 (2990). This positioning defines the current overall “weak balance” attribute. The market has not turned stronger but is experiencing a temporary exhaustion of downward momentum.
2. Key Boundaries:
· Support Line: $2950 is the lower boundary of the oscillation zone and the current bulls’ must-hold bottom. If broken, it will directly disrupt the current balance structure, leading to a market sentiment shift toward panic, with the price likely testing the previous low of $2858.
· Breakthrough Point Upwards: The $3000 round number and MA20 together form the resistance at the upper boundary of the range. A valid breakout and stabilization above this level is the first technical signal that the market attempts to reverse the short-term weakness. Stronger resistance lies at $3030-3050 (MA30 and previous small platform).
3. Momentum Status Analysis:
· MACD shows subtle signs of improvement: the DIF line is slightly turning upward, and the MACD histogram turns red, indicating that the short-term downward momentum is indeed waning.
· However, both lines remain deep below the zero axis, and RSI is only at 30.5, a weak zone, suggesting that the current balance mainly results from “temporary exhaustion of selling pressure,” rather than “strong active buying.” Overall market sentiment remains cautious and watchful.

Core of the Future Market Projection
The current structure’s core is that the market is attempting to “buy time” by consolidating sideways to digest overhead pressure and repair technical indicators. The key to the next evolution lies in the direction of the balance break:

· Upward Breakout Path: Requires the price to gradually raise its center of gravity during consolidation, ultimately breaking through the 3000-3030 resistance zone with increased volume, thereby opening space for a rebound to higher resistance levels.
· Downward Breakdown Path: If the price cannot break through $3000 for a long time and the oscillation lows gradually decline, caution should be taken as the balance may tilt toward the bears, with a single bearish candle breaking below $2950 support, restarting a downtrend.

(ETH is at a critical weak balance node, and the direction choice is imminent. Subscribers can access the “Bull-Bear Sentiment Heatmap” and “Key Price Level Capital Flows” data to anticipate the direction of the balance break.)#现货黄金再创新高