If you have fans or friends who are also troubled by similar issues, you can first become a VIP for free through interaction, and once a year, you can come to me for guidance.\nI have self-studied psychology, so my psychological massage is quite professional.\n\nPeople who bought houses between 2020-2022 are truly the brave ones. Taking this friend in the picture as an example, it can be said that they suffered heavy losses.\nActually, it’s still the same point: finding what suits you is the most important. The current situation is that everyone is not lacking houses; however, some people are obsessed with that one house in a big city. Therefore, how to calculate the true value of a house becomes particularly important.\n\nThere are mainly two reference parameters:\n\n1. Is it a must-buy?\nThe most common reason is just necessity. What is a necessity? It’s a situation where you have no choice but to buy. For example, wanting to settle down and start a career, if your girlfriend’s family refuses to agree because you don’t own a house, and her mother insists that you must buy a house before she agrees to marry her daughter—let’s put it this way, the mother-in-law is the strongest salesperson in the real estate industry.\nOr, if children need to attend school, without a school district house, they can’t enroll. This is also a real necessity. Some people simply can’t stand the feeling of drifting in rental housing: they can’t decorate as they like, and a word from the landlord means packing up and moving. This instability is indeed exhausting.\nApart from these situations, most of the “want to buy a house” cases are mostly following trends or obsession.\n\n2. How to price it, what price is considered reasonable?\nHere is a core logic: the minimum cost way to own a house is to rent, not buy. Moreover, a house is not a permanent asset; it has a lifespan. According to current developer standards, the actual lifespan of high-rise residential buildings is at most 50-70 years.\nNot to mention the potential risks of high-rise buildings: if a fool downstairs damages a load-bearing wall, the entire building’s residents will suffer; when the house truly ages, mobilizing all the owners in the building to fund renovations or reconstruction is basically a pipe dream.\nIn the past, developers loved building high-rises because the demolition cost of low-rise bungalows was low, and the profit from building tall buildings was high; but in the future? Demolishing high-rises to build even taller ones neither conforms to physical laws nor has enough new population support. Except for policy-based housing like affordable rental housing, it’s highly unlikely that commercial housing can rely on government guarantees.\nIn simple terms, the house you buy is essentially a product with a 50-70 year usage right, which will depreciate over time.\n\nFor example: a newly renovated house with a monthly rent of 5000 yuan, annual rent is 60,000 yuan. Based on a lifespan of 50-70 years, its reasonable value range is 3-4.2 million yuan. But this doesn’t include mortgage interest and opportunity costs of the down payment—if you buy with a loan, interest will eat up a large portion of your returns; if you pay in full, you could put that money into high-yield savings certificates or government bonds, earning a steady income annually.\n\nSo, when the monthly mortgage payment is roughly equal to the monthly rent, it’s a good time to buy. After paying the mortgage for decades, the property rights still last 70 years and are in your hands, and this calculation is never a loss.\n\nFinally, one more thing to say: don’t be blinded by the “appreciation dream,” especially in today’s market environment. For necessity-based self-occupation, act within your means; for investment and speculation, it’s best to stop early. The ultimate meaning of a house is to give you a stable home, not a mountain that crushes you.