The $7 Deep-Sea Mining Play That Could Leave You Filthy Rich

The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) is capturing attention as one of 2025’s most dramatic performers, gaining 450% during the year. Currently trading around $7 per share, the stock represents an intriguing risk-reward proposition in the emerging deep-sea mining sector.

The Nodule Story: Where Value Hides

At the heart of TMC’s investment thesis lies polymetallic nodules—potato-sized mineral formations scattered across the ocean floor containing critical metals like nickel, cobalt, and manganese. The company’s exploration area has been assessed to contain reserves worth approximately $23.6 billion, yet the market currently values TMC at roughly $3 billion. This significant disconnect suggests either skepticism about commercial viability or early-stage pricing for a nascent industry.

The capital requirements tell an interesting story too: achieving production would require roughly $113 million in expenditures—a relatively modest sum compared to the projected asset value. If markets eventually assign probability-weighted valuations closer to project fundamentals, mathematicians point to potential 700% upside from current levels.

Regulatory Momentum: A U.S. Government Angle

The turning point came in April 2025 when TMC filed what it described as “the world’s first application for commercial recovery permit” under United States law. This represents a strategic pivot worth analyzing.

Previously, the company’s path depended entirely on the International Seabed Authority (ISA) establishing deep-sea mining frameworks—a process that remains incomplete. By pursuing U.S. licensing instead, TMC is exploiting an interesting regulatory nuance: America never ratified the treaty establishing the ISA and maintains independent authority over seabed mining within its jurisdiction.

This alternative pathway could theoretically accelerate timelines, though political complications and international friction present genuine uncertainties.

The Bigger Picture: Sequencing and Scale

If TMC successfully demonstrates that deep-sea nodule extraction is commercially viable—and this remains a substantial “if”—the company isn’t limited to a single deposit. Industrial clients and defense contractors seeking secure polymetallic supplies could create long-term contracting opportunities across multiple mining regions.

The company’s current valuation essentially implies the market assigns low probability to this scenario materializing. For patient investors comfortable with volatility and capable of weathering execution risks, the potential asymmetry is noteworthy.

What Matters Now

Success depends on three variables: regulatory approval from U.S. authorities, technical demonstration of commercial viability, and sustained demand for deep-sea metals. None of these outcomes is assured. The path toward profitability involves both technological challenges and political headwinds that could derail progress.

At $7, you’re essentially betting on a multi-year transformation from exploration-stage company to operational producer. For those willing to accept significant uncertainty in exchange for potentially outsized returns, this remains an unusual opportunity in the commodities and mining space.