Say goodbye to speculation. Where is the real breakout point in the 26-year macro environment?

Author: Satoshi Voice

Translation: Deep潮 TechFlow

Deep潮 Guide: This article provides an in-depth analysis of the macro trends in the crypto market in 2026. Although Bitcoin remains dominant in 2025 driven by institutional funds and ETFs, market performance shows low volatility and high absorption characteristics.

With the dust settling on US regulatory policies, the explosion of RWA (Real World Assets) tokenization, and the transformation of DeFi tokenomics, the crypto market in 2026 is evolving from a purely speculative cycle to a more complex, data-driven mature financial system.

Amid the tug-of-war between tightening macro liquidity and accelerated on-chain innovation, this article reveals the underlying logic supporting the next phase of expansion.

The main text is as follows:

Investors entering 2026 face a complex macro outlook for the crypto market. Bitcoin, regulation, and tokenization are converging to redefine how risk and liquidity flow on-chain.

Summary

Bitcoin at the core of the new crypto market structure

Macro conditions, liquidity, and policy paths in 2026

ETF liquidity, strategic positioning, and sentiment shifts

Regulation, US market structure, and global spillover effects

Low volatility, Bitcoin dominance, and unusual cycle contours

RWA tokenization and the next wave of structural growth

DeFi tokenomics, protocol fees, and value capture

Paving the way for 2026

Bitcoin at the core of the new crypto market structure

Throughout 2025, Bitcoin has remained the main driver of the crypto market, shaped by macro forces and increasing institutional participation. However, the channels for demand, liquidity, and risk expression have changed. This cycle feels less frenzied than before but is structurally more intricate and increasingly data-driven.

As a macro asset, Bitcoin continues to anchor risk sentiment amid sluggish economic growth, persistent inflation, and frequent geopolitical conflicts. This environment compresses volatility ranges, with sharp moves occurring only under specific narratives. Additionally, market behavior appears more restrained, with fewer extreme “blow-off tops.”

Institutional tools currently play a decisive role in price discovery. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs (including BlackRock’s IBIT) and digital asset treasury buyers (like MicroStrategy and other strategic investors) contributed significant net capital inflows in 2024 and 2025. Nonetheless, their impact on benchmark prices has been weaker than many expected.

In 2025 alone, ETFs and strategic buyers absorbed nearly $44 billion in net spot demand for Bitcoin. However, price performance lagged behind the scale of capital inflows, revealing evolving supply dynamics. The most likely source of supply is long-term holders who are cashing out profits accumulated over multiple cycles.

Evidence comes from the “Bitcoin Coin Days Destroyed” metric, which tracks how long tokens have been idle before moving. In Q4 2025, this metric hit its highest quarterly record. Yet, this turnover occurred amid a backdrop of strong equities, AI-driven growth narratives, and record-breaking gold prices, competing for investor attention.

As a result, the market can absorb large capital inflows without triggering the reflexive upside seen in early cycles. Despite these headwinds, systemic risk indicators remain manageable, stablecoin liquidity is at historic highs, and regulatory clarity is improving, making the overall structure broadly constructive.

Infrastructure, DeFi, and tokenization innovations are accelerating, but complexity is increasing as well. Higher complexity may also conceal hidden vulnerabilities, especially in a macro environment that no longer guarantees supportive monetary policies.

Macro Conditions, Liquidity, and Policy Paths in 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, macroeconomic trends and liquidity conditions will remain central to digital asset performance. Moderate economic growth is expected, with the US likely outperforming regions like Europe and the UK. However, inflation is expected to remain sticky, limiting policy flexibility.

Central banks are expected to continue cutting rates (notably Japan and Australia). However, the pace of easing will be slower than in 2025. Market pricing suggests that by the end of 2026, the US policy rate will approach around 3%, with quantitative tightening (QT) or balance sheet reduction possibly pausing.

For risk assets (including cryptocurrencies), liquidity remains one of the most relevant leading indicators. While quantitative tightening in the US has effectively ended, there is no clear roadmap for resuming quantitative easing (QE) absent negative growth shocks. Nonetheless, investors remain attentive to any forward guidance shifts.

Uncertainty around the Federal Reserve leadership adds another layer of fog. Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026, sparking expectations of a policy shift that could alter liquidity management and risk appetite. Risk bias is asymmetric: significant easing is more likely to follow adverse economic news than positive developments.

Persistent high inflation remains a major obstacle to a more supportive macro environment for digital assets. A true “Goldilocks” scenario requires progress on multiple fronts: improved trade relations, declining consumer price inflation, sustained confidence in AI-related investments, and a cooling of key geopolitical conflicts.

ETF Liquidity, Strategic Positions, and Sentiment Shifts

Inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and strategic investor positions continue to serve as important sentiment indicators. However, the informational content of these signals is changing. ETF inflows in 2025 were lower than in 2024, and digital asset treasury issuers can no longer issue shares at the same high premium over NAV.

Speculative positions have also cooled. The options markets related to IBIT and strategic investors experienced a sharp collapse in net delta risk exposure by the end of 2025, even falling below levels seen during the tariff turmoil in April 2025, when risk assets were aggressively sold off.

Without a shift back to “risk-on” sentiment, these tools will struggle to drive another strong rally in Bitcoin as they did early in the cycle. Moreover, this moderation of speculative leverage helps create a more stable, albeit less explosive, trading environment.

Regulation, US Market Structure, and Global Spillover Effects

Regulatory clarity has shifted from a hypothetical catalyst to a concrete driver of market structure. The passage of US stablecoin legislation is reshaping on-chain dollar liquidity, providing a more solid foundation for payment rails and trading venues. Attention is now turning to the CLARITY Act and related reforms.

If implemented, this framework will clarify regulation of digital commodities and exchanges, potentially accelerating capital formation and reinforcing the US as a leading crypto hub. However, implementation details are critical for both centralized venues and on-chain protocols.

The global impact is significant. Jurisdictions worldwide are closely watching US outcomes as they craft their own regulatory frameworks. Additionally, emerging regulatory maps will influence the flow of capital, developers, and innovation clusters, shaping long-term regional competition.

Low Volatility, Bitcoin Dominance, and Unusual Cycle Contours

One of the most prominent features of the current environment is the unusually low volatility of cryptocurrencies, even during all-time high periods. This contrasts sharply with previous cycles, where peaks were often accompanied by extremely high realized volatility.

Recently, Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility has hovered around 20-30%, setting new highs. Historically, such levels are associated with market bottoms rather than tops. Despite ongoing macro and policy uncertainties, this calm persists.

Bitcoin’s market dominance reinforces this signal. Throughout 2025, dominance averaged above 60%, with no sustained dip below 50%—a level often associated with late-cycle speculative excess. Whether this pattern reflects a structurally more mature market or simply delayed volatility release remains one of the key unresolved questions for 2026.

RWA Tokenization and the Next Wave of Structural Growth

Tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) is quietly becoming one of the most important long-term structural narratives in crypto. In just one year, tokenized financial assets expanded from about $5.6 billion to nearly $19 billion, surpassing government bond funds and extending into commodities, private credit, and public equities.

As regulatory attitudes shift from adversarial to more collaborative, traditional financial institutions are increasingly experimenting with on-chain distribution and settlement. Moreover, tokenization of widely held instruments like large-cap US stocks could unlock new pools of global demand and on-chain liquidity.

For many investors, a key question is what the tokenization of financial assets ultimately means for market plumbing and price discovery. If successful, this shift could become a defining growth catalyst, similar to how ICOs or AMMs drove early crypto expansion.

DeFi Tokenomics, Protocol Fees, and Value Capture

The evolution of DeFi’s internal token economics is another potential catalyst, albeit with more targeted goals. Many early-cycle DeFi governance tokens were deliberately conservative in design, avoiding explicit value capture mechanisms like protocol fee sharing to sidestep regulatory uncertainty.

This stance appears to be changing. Proposals like activating protocol fees in Uniswap signal a shift toward models emphasizing sustainable cash flows and long-term stakeholder alignment. However, these experiments are still in early stages and will be closely scrutinized by investors and policymakers.

If these new designs prove successful, they could help reprice some DeFi assets, moving away from purely sentiment-driven narratives toward more durable valuation frameworks. Additionally, improved incentive structures may better support future growth, developer engagement, and on-chain liquidity resilience.

Paving the Way for 2026

At the start of 2026, the outlook for crypto is defined by the interplay between macro uncertainty and accelerating on-chain innovation. Bitcoin remains the core prism for risk sentiment, but it no longer operates in isolation from broader structural forces.

Liquidity conditions, institutional positioning, regulatory reforms, and the maturation of asset tokenization and DeFi tokenomics are increasingly intertwined. Market sentiment is lower than a year ago, leverage has been cleansed, and most structural progress has occurred behind the scenes.

While tail risks remain high, especially macro-wise, the underlying fundamentals of the industry appear more resilient than ever before. The industry is no longer in infancy but is rapidly evolving. The foundations laid in 2025 and 2026 are likely to shape the contours of the next major crypto expansion, even as the road ahead remains rugged.